PRESIDENTIAL POLLS. The second round of the presidential election is approaching and Emmanuel Macron remains the favorite against Marine Le Pen in the latest polls published. Compilation of studies from between the two towers.
[Mis à jour le 22 avril 2022 à 23h59] A few hours before the second round of the presidential election, the latest polls all place Emmanuel Macron in the lead. On average, a difference of ten points separates the outgoing president from Marine Le Pen according to polling institutes. The dynamic is clearly on the side of the Head of State who has widened his lead in recent days. For her part, the candidate of the National Rally does not benefit from the carryover of votes from the left. The voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who came third in the first round of the 2022 presidential election, are mostly turning to the president-candidate. In the latest surveys, Emmanuel Macron is on average credited with 55% of voting intentions against 45% for Marine Le Pen.
However, the polls do not constitute forecasts of the results of the presidential election. It is simply a photograph of the opinion taken at a precise moment. Several factors are difficult to measure: the abstention rate, the indecision of voters until the last moment and the margin of error present in all the polls. Thus, the ballot is far from over.
The end of the campaign and the debate between the two rounds seem rather to benefit Emmanuel Macron. The outgoing president is credited with 56.5% of the voting intentions expressed against 43.5% for Marine Le Pen. According to the Ipsos poll for Le Monde, the voters of the RN candidate are 92% sure of their choice, against 94% for the head of state. Since the evening of the first round, the lead of the outgoing president has continued to widen from ten to thirteen points with the far-right candidate.
This “latest poll” featured here may come from different polling institutes, and each has a different methodology. Here are the ones that appear alternately on this page, with links to find out more about each survey.
What do the polls say about this revenge between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, five years after an identical second round in 2017? Even before the first round of this 2022 presidential election was held, polls had been published in the event of a second round confrontation in the presidential election between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron.
All the polls carried out before the first round gave Emmanuel Macron the winner. These pre-first round polls have been supplemented by new studies carried out since Sunday, April 10.
2nd round debate poll
The Elabe Institute carried out a survey for BFM TV, L’Express and SFR at the end of the debate between the two rounds, on a representative panel of 650 people who watched the discussions. 59% of respondents felt that Emmanuel Macron had been “more convincing” (39% for Marine Le Pen). Another lesson from this poll: 53% of viewers polled thought that Emmanuel Macron was the one who “has the most qualities to be President of the Republic” (28% for Marine Le Pen); the outgoing president is considered to be more “capable of bringing the French people together” (36% against 31%), more dynamic (49% against 31%); he is also perceived as having the “best project” (44% against 31%), but also as the “most arrogant” (50% against 16%).
Poll on the certainty of the Macron or Le Pen vote
This is important data to identify the probability that the dynamics of the polls will reverse or accelerate: have voting intentions already crystallized and to what extent? According toa very robust Ipsos Sopra Steria / Cevipof study for Le Monde, 69% of French people said they were sure they would vote on April 18, 2022 (57% among 18-24 year olds, 56% among 25-34 year olds, but 78% among 60-69 year olds and 82% among 70 years and older). Another data: 93% of voters thinking of voting Emmanuel Macron say they are certain of their second-round choice, 89% of voters thinking of voting Marine Le Pen also. But 43% of people thinking of abstaining or voting blank or null say they can change their minds.
The Ifop polling institute gives Emmanuel Macron at the top of the voting intentions for the 2nd round of the presidential election. Here are the developments of the survey over the last few days.
The polling institute Elabe gives Emmanuel Macron at the top of the voting intentions for the 2nd round of the presidential election. Here are the developments of the survey over the last few days.
The Opinion Way polling institute gives Emmanuel Macron at the top of the voting intentions for the second round of the presidential election. Here are the developments of the survey over the last few days.
What do the polls say about vote carryovers?
Polls on the voters of Mélenchon
The postponement of the votes of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters is one of the key issues in the second round of the presidential election. Some polls specify the voting intentions of voters who voted for the Insoumis in the first round and provide an idea of trends and possible vote carryovers for the second round.
According to the survey BVA for Orange er RTL published on April 22, 2022, 27% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters are inclined to give their vote to the outgoing president, a figure that is falling. The majority of them say “for the moment they want to vote white (24%; +2) or abstain (31%; +1)”. “Only 18% would vote for Marine Le Pen. It’s a very small minority but nevertheless twice as many as in 2017 (8%)”, analyzes the institute.
According to the Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for Le Monde published on April 20, 36% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters intended to vote for Emmanuel Macron, 19% for Marine Le Pen and 45% intended to abstain.
According to the survey Ifop carried out for TFI-LCI on April 10 gave the electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, very divided: 33% intended on this date to vote for Emmanuel Macron against 23% for Marine Le Pen while 44% lean for a blank vote, null or abstention.
Pécresse voter polls
The behavior of the electorate of Valérie Pécresse is less scrutinized but it appears divided. According to the BVA study cited above, 48% of people who voted for candidate LR plan to vote for Emmanuel Macron, against 21% for Marine Le Pen. Trends corroborated by the Ipsos-Sopra Steria study for Le Monde which counts: 50% of the electorate ready to vote for Emmanuel Macron, 20% for Marine Le Pen and 30% abstention.