Macron in demining operation against the “Moscow telegraph operator” – L’Express

“For the moment, there is no solution,” admits a European source familiar with the discussions. A visit by Charles Michel to Hungary did not produce results. At the start of the week, Viktor Orban also wrote a new letter to the President of the European Council, the second in a few weeks. “I respectfully urge you not to invite the European Council to decide on these subjects, because the lack of obvious consensus would inevitably lead to failure,” warns the strong man from Budapest. He also calls for a comprehensive strategic discussion on policy towards Ukraine.

So much for the context of the working dinner at the Elysée to which Emmanuel Macron invited him this Thursday evening. No public statements expected, but a tête-à-tête seen as decisive between two men who have established a relationship of trust despite their differences. On the French side, we want to believe that the Magyar is moving because he is ready to negotiate. “Orban doesn’t talk to many people. It’s a very good idea that Macron has taken the initiative, greets a diplomat from another European country. We need to quickly understand what the Hungarian Prime Minister wants and what are its red lines.”

Yet another poker move or real threat? In Brussels, both scenarios are circulating. First hypothesis, one of those pressure attacks which the Hungarian is accustomed to, with the objective of obtaining money from the European budget frozen by the European Commission in the name of attacks on the rule of law: 21.7 billion coming from cohesion fund and 10.4 billion allocated under the major anti-Covid recovery plan. Taking note of reforms which aim to restore the independence of justice, Brussels nevertheless suggested that part of the funds could quickly be released. This does not seem to be enough to mollify Orban.

Hence the second hypothesis, that of a headlong flight. Even the most jaded diplomats do not rule it out. “Since Viktor Orban saw Vladimir Putin in October, he seems to have turned even more into Moscow’s little telegraph operator,” notes Eric Maurice, who heads the Brussels office of the Schuman Foundation. The handshake between the two men on the sidelines of the forum on New Silk Roads in China shocked and worried other leaders of the European Union. “The strategic debate he is calling for may seem necessary, because the conflict in Ukraine is at a turning point. But is the level of trust sufficient to have a frank discussion in his presence?”, the expert from the Schuman Foundation.

However, Europeans know that they cannot afford the luxury of disunity next week. The stakes are too high. “There is a symbolic urgency, deciphers a European source. The Ukrainians are waiting for our signal, just like President Biden, whose Congress is reluctant to adopt a new aid package. We must be there. A failure, it “It’s game and set for Putin.”

“When only one member state wants to block, the European Union always manages to move forward,” reassures a European diplomat. “Orban has guts, but he also has interests to defend,” another source wants to believe. At the same time, the Hungarian’s partners are thinking about alternative avenues, also a way of showing him in advance that they can limit his power to cause harm. Thus, they could move forward as a group of 26 on financial support for Ukraine, even if the mechanisms will be more complicated and therefore more costly.

On the enlargement process, however, unanimity is essential. But since membership itself is not envisaged for years, an explicit message to 26 can temporarily limit the damage to Ukrainian morale. “Will the summit be extremely difficult? Yes. Will there be blood on the walls at some point? No doubt,” promises a high-ranking European official who wants to believe that a solution will be found ultimately. To see if it is already taking shape behind closed doors at the Élysée.