Will Emmanuel Macron be more successful in putting pressure on Xi Jinping than on Vladimir Putin before and after his invasion of Ukraine? We can doubt it. Voluntarist, the French president, criticized for his long conversations with the head of the Kremlin (which had no noticeable effect), was convinced, during the G20 in Bali, in November, that China could “play a role of mediation more important in the coming months”, to resolve the conflict.
Since then, the Chinese No. 1 has dramatically strengthened its ties with its Russian counterpart against the United States and the West, in Moscow last month. Emmanuel Macron, however, did not lose hope of influencing the decisions of the Asian giant during his state visit to China, from April 5 to 8. Beijing, confided his entourage before the trip, “is able to tip the conflict in one direction or the other”. It is a question of “avoiding the worst: for China to go further in supporting Russia”, in particular by delivering weapons. And to “identify the conditions that can lead to an end to this conflict”.
Macron and Xi are not “friends”
How ? Thanks to his personal relationship with his host, whom he will attend six to seven hours, argue his advisers. But what do these few hours weigh in the face of some 40 meetings between Xi and his “friend” Putin? And what levers does France have, while Beijing refuses the slightest criticism of its strategic choices? Difficult, too, to be very incisive accompanied by about fifty business leaders thirsty for contracts…
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, who recently hardened her speech on the Chinese threat when Macron wants a “reengagement” with Beijing, will be at his side. A demonstration of European unity to which the Elysée is attached and which can only be useful. Provided that the speeches are coordinated, facing an authoritarian regime that only respects the balance of power.
The expression of “risk reduction” in the face of “unfair practices” and situations of dependency, used by Ursula von der Leyen, seems for example difficult to implement for France. While the 2019 objective was to “rebalance bilateral economic exchanges upwards”, the French trade deficit with China has only widened, reaching nearly 50 billion euros in 2022, against 30 billion in 2017.
A counterproductive visit?
Without courageous and harmonized communication, the visit could prove to be counterproductive. “The attempts of several European leaders to seek a solution to the war in Ukraine from Beijing are not only illusory, but they also contribute to fueling the discourse of China, which presents itself as a pacifist and constructive actor, while supporting Russia”, write researchers Marc Julienne and Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, in a note for Ifri. Before adding that it is, according to them, urgent “to take note of the real Chinese position behind the ambiguities and contradictions of its speech, and to denounce them”.
“It will be important to avoid any comment which would then be used by Beijing to present itself as a responsible, even providential, power to its population and its non-Western partners”, adds Antoine Bondaz, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research. , for whom France’s expectations must be “realistic, and therefore limited”.
Basically, continues this expert, “it is not so much concessions to bring China to put pressure on Russia that are expected as clear warnings: any military support from China to Russia would go against the security European Union and China would face significant consequences”.
France, which likes to present itself as a “power of balance”, will also have to take care not to dissociate itself from the United States, in a period of very strong Sino-American tensions, and which will closely follow the declarations of ‘Emmanuel Macron on Chinese soil. “Beijing should not be given the means to exploit the differences between partners, which are very real”, continues Antoine Bondaz.
To further complicate matters, the French president will set foot in China on the same day that Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen, returning from a tour of Central America, will meet in California with the speaker of the American House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy. A “provocation” according to Beijing, which threatens to “retaliate” – China reacted with large-scale military maneuvers around Taiwan, after the visit last August of Nancy Pelosi, McCarthy’s predecessor. Emmanuel Macron could on this occasion be questioned during the press conference on his position concerning Taiwan, an ultra-sensitive subject on which he has never expressed himself in depth. Emmanuel Macron’s Chinese trip will definitely be strewn with pitfalls.