Four days before the first round, the gap is closing between the three favorites of the polls. The boss of the RN could come out on top on the evening of April 10. And Mélenchon could take second place.
The closer the date of the first round approaches, the more the polls revise their copy. The president-candidate’s surge in the first and second rounds, on April 10 and 24, 2022, is over. Emmanuel Macron is still leading, but his pursuers, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, are gaining ground every day.
A latest Ifop-Fiducial poll for Paris-Match, LCI and Sud-Radio gives Macron 27% against 23% for Le Pen. A gap of only 4 points between the two leading candidates, a gap that has shrunk by more than 10 points in a few weeks.
Pécresse, Zemmour down
But the leader of France Insoumise is also progressing since he gets 16.5% of the voting intentions in this same poll, probably at the expense of the communist Fabien Roussel who is at a ceiling at 3%. But not only. For all the other candidates see their score drop, including Valérie Pécresse (LR) and Eric Zemmour (Reconquest) who are below the symbolic bar of 10% of voting intentions. The seven other candidates are all below 5%, except Yannick Jadot, given at 5.2%.
Another poll by the Sunday newspaper gives Macron a little below 27%, further reducing the gap between the two main rivals in the race for the Élysée.
The collateral damage of war
So there are four days left before the vote. Four days during which many things can still happen in France and in the world.
Public opinion is worried about the Russo-Ukrainian war and its political and economic consequences in our country. In the supermarkets, the citizens-electors notice a rise in the price of the first necessity goods. They also notice an increase in gas and electricity bills, in the price of fuel at the pump, etc.
The French are worried about the turn this war is taking and the images that are repeated on television. There is more and more talk of a generalization of the conflict, of a possible third world war, of the possible use of atomic weapons.
In shorts, nothing to look forward to. Will this climate of anxiety have an effect on voters on April 10 and 24? Will they massively abstain, as was the case in 2017, but also during the regional elections? Will they vote “useful” in the first round by favoring one or another of the three leading candidates?
Answer in four days!