LEGISLATIVE POLLS. A few days before the second round of the 2022 legislative elections, the time has come to take stock of the latest poll. Majority for the Macron camp or great victory for the united left (Nupes)? Here are the latest trends…
[Mis à jour le 15 juin 2022 à 18h39] Five days before the second round of the 2022 legislative elections, LCI publishes a new poll carried out by Ifop-Fiducial. According to this latest projection broadcast this Wednesday, June 15, the camp of President Emmanuel Macron could obtain between 265 and 300 deputies. If the threshold of 289 seats is crossed, the Macron camp would win an absolute majority.
Emmanuel Macron and his allies would, however, still be followed by the united left, united under the label Nupes, namely the New Popular Ecological and Social Union. Still according to projections released by LCI on Wednesday, the camp led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon could win between 180 and 210 seats. It would thus become the first opposition group in the National Assembly. Estimates which, however, would not allow the united left to obtain an absolute majority, and with the long-awaited cohabitation. Let’s keep in mind that the polls are not an exact prediction of the vote. However, for the first round of these legislative elections, they were not far off.
After the results of the first round of the legislative elections, the pollsters agree that the candidates Together! could obtain the parliamentary majority on the evening of Sunday June 19. But none places the number of seats slider with certainty above the 289 level. With as many or more deputies, Emmanuel Macron secures an absolute majority, but with fewer elected officials, the majority will only be relative and governance of the country complicated.
The latest projections from the Ifop-Fiducial Institute for LCI, published on Wednesday June 15, estimate between 265 and 300 the number of winnable seats for Together! (LREM, MoDem, Horizon, Act). The Nupes would obtain by following the largest number of deputies with between 180 and 210 places at the Bourbon Palace. A fine performance which would remain insufficient to impose cohabitation on the Head of State. Despite a sharp decline, the Republicans would retain between 40 and 65 of their seats and would become the second opposition force when they were the first so far. Finally, the National Rally could manage to form a parliamentary group of 20 to 40 deputies.
Ifop-Fiducial, which delivered projections on the evening of the first round, is more optimistic about the results of the presidential majority and allocates 275 to 310 seats to the deputies of Ensemble!. But it should be noted that in fact, the majority would remain narrow between the other forces of the Assembly. The Nupes could obtain 175 to 205 seats when LR would oscillate between 45 and 65 elected and finally the RN could have a group of 15 to 30 deputies. The balance of power would therefore remain unchanged.
Please note: the projections established on the evening of the first round of the legislative elections are not the result of polls. The institutes that develop them for television channels are based on the actual results of several hundred polling stations representative of the diversity of the constituencies, spread throughout France. With these starting data, mathematical models will come to give a range of the probable number of seats for each political bloc. Algorithms whose challenge is above all to anticipate the reports of votes in the 577 constituencies.
What did the last poll of voting intentions say about the 1st round of the 2022 legislative elections?
The latest survey from the Ifop institute for LCI, published Friday, June 10, gave the Nupes (26.5%) just ahead of Together! (26%), when the RN collected 19% of the voting intentions, far ahead of LR (10%) and Reconquest (5.5%). A result similar to the very latest Harris Interactive and Toluna barometer for Challenges (June 8 to 10) and to the Ipsos-Sopra-Steria surveys for France Télévisions, Radio France and Le Monde, giving the two formations equal or almost, in front of the maximum RN 20%. The match between Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon was therefore announced and the pollsters made no mistake.
The various polls published in recent weeks gave Together! and the Nupes at the top of the voting intentions, ahead of the National Rally, this trend in the polls having been maintained throughout almost the entire campaign. The movement led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the alliance formed around Emmanuel Macron have been credited with 25 to 28% of the votes in a pocket handkerchief in recent weeks, which is what the first round delivered as a balance.
Difficult to produce reliable polls for the legislative elections
Please note: the votes for the legislative elections are very different from those cast for the presidential election. Other components structure this vote: the weight of the parties established in the territories, the political personalities appreciated locally, the political rapprochements at the level of the constituencies, and the method of voting, majority in two rounds. All this makes the job of pollsters difficult. But if it is impossible to make precise projections, certain elements must be taken into account to measure the balance of power.
In the 577 constituencies in mainland France and overseas (excluding the constituencies of French nationals living abroad), Emmanuel Macron came out on top, in the first round of the presidential election, in 256. Marine Le Pen in 206, Jean -Luc Mélenchon in 104, Valérie Pécresse in… none. But remember that in 2017, Marine Le Pen managed to lead the first round of the presidential election in 216 constituencies; the far-right party had only managed to elect 9 deputies.