She didn’t see the question coming. “Did you watch Nicolas Canteloup last night?” On January 12, Elisabeth Borne discusses with the leaders of LR and launches into a long technical explanation of a specific point in the pension reform when one of them interrupts her. No, the Prime Minister did not watch the comedian the day before on TF1, perhaps she had better things to do… Canteloup imitated her, drowning in the numbers (and in the smoke), making complex remarks until to become incomprehensible, to the point of losing the audience. In the famous hell of Matignon, an angel passes, who will not leave anytime soon. The director of cabinet Aurélien Rousseau will entrust it to the author of this small provocation, “the exit on Canteloup made the day for us!”
In mid-January, cruising is still fun, but not for long. Since the pension reform was presented, “we have really done everything to annoy the whole world, we have helped a lot to make it go wrong”. Word of Jean-Luc Mélenchon? No, it is a minister who, this week, is taking stock of recent weeks in private.
Lawrence Berger? “He didn’t do what he said”
Even the compass loses north. Elisabeth Borne dreamed, not of an agreement she knew was impossible with the CFDT, at least of an armed peace with Laurent Berger. “Thinking that we are going to win with Laurent Berger in the country as it is today was a mistake,” said a member of the government kindly. Another: “Elisabeth Borne’s software was taken the wrong way.” Indeed… Today, Matignon sees it bluntly, we can no longer count on Laurent Berger. The Prime Minister finds it difficult to accept that the secretary general of the CFDT assured her, eye to eye, on a Sunday evening, that he would certainly oppose a postponement of the retirement age to 64 years, but making a distinction with 65 years, and that it would point to the progress of the reform. “He did not do what he said,” regrets a close friend of the head of government.
On arrival, therefore, not Laurent Berger, but Eric Ciotti, whose Matignon willingly highlights “reliability”. You see well that you see badly. It is on the president of LR that the fate of the Prime Minister depends, it was not quite the plan … “That means that she puts her head in my hands, you have to have confidence!”, s’ entertains Eric Ciotti in front of his family. Because there is not only the right in life, he questioned Elisabeth Borne on Wednesday March 8: “How many defections will there be in the majority?” The Prime Minister is strong to manage them. Former minister Barbara Pompili, who again this week repeated that she did not want to approve the project? “We will call him,” assures the head of government. Who guarantees the unanimous vote of the deputies of his camp.
In this story, we walk on the head. Eric Ciotti and Bruno Retailleau are full of praise for Elisabeth Borne – even if they are still surprised that she sometimes went beyond what LR official channel asked for -, the Elysée less . Should we multiply the concessions to this point? Opinion told it, the Prime Minister decided on her own in mid-February that those who started at 17 could leave at 60, after 43 years of work, to please Aurélien Pradié, whom the LR group is trying then to contain. It is not said that the measure survives the examination of the text in a joint committee.
This is the problem: we cannot satisfy Aurélien Pradié and Emmanuel Macron at the same time. Faced with this dilemma, one could say that the choice of Elisabeth Borne is all mapped out. Not that easy. “She wants it to pass at any price. If she passes it without 49-3, she extends her political lease to the Europeans”, notes one of her interlocutors.
“We have a swimming pool”
Here comes the money-time, until the meeting of the joint committee next Wednesday and the vote of the two chambers the next day. First step: the CMP. Seven deputies and seven senators will be responsible for agreeing on a final version of the text, submitted to the vote of the two assemblies. The discussions – behind closed doors – will take place at the Palais Bourbon. In Koh Lanta, the choice of “ambassadors” responsible for preparing the reunification of the teams is the subject of bitter discussions. In Parliament, it’s the same. Doubts have long hovered over the identity of the LR deputy present at the CMP. It will be the group president Olivier Marleix. The deputy for Eure-et-Loir negotiated with Elisabeth Borne, his political weight is not negligible against the majority and the three LR senators. Olivier Marleix warned Thursday, March 9 by SMS the deputy LR Thibault Bazin, whose name has circulated for a time.
Except surprise, the CMP will be “conclusive”. The ideological convergences between LR representatives and those of the majority are beyond doubt. Task Parliament with ratifying this agreement by a vote. Surprise, the right-wing Senate will vote first, before handing over to the Assembly. The government made a tactical choice in doing so. “We put pressure on LR deputies”, admits a Renaissance hierarch.
Elisabeth Borne is confident: of course, if the forecast gives less than five votes in advance, it will be impossible to play with fire, but she currently thinks she has more than ten reserve votes. “During the budget, we once wanted to avoid a 49-3, we knew that at one point we would be in the majority so we told Elisabeth Borne to go through a vote, nevertheless recalls a deputy. She has nothing wanted to know and thought it was too fair.” This time, the music is different. “Neither the president nor the Prime Minister want to carry the text alone while the others say ‘We have a swimming pool'”, advances an adviser to the executive.
To date, Elisabeth Borne does not expect 49-3
For Emmanuel Macron, for a long time the 49-3 was worthy of the old world – not exactly a compliment in his mind. He experienced its use in 2015 to pass the law he presented as Minister of the Economy as an offense, political of course, almost personal even. François Hollande and Manuel Valls thus prevented him from winning a victory he considered certain – when the executive couple calculated that a parliamentary accident could well happen, for lack of a clear majority on the text. “Of course, 49-3 weakens Elisabeth Borne, but Emmanuel Macron cannot afford the non-adoption of the reform, notes a minister among his followers. The two scenarios are on the table. There, the president did not finished his evaluation.”
For Elisabeth Borne, who called Edouard Philippe, François Bayrou and the majority group presidents, the idea is simple: make it clear that she does not want 49-3. “Some parliamentarians would love for us to use this article, but the idea is not to make a bet, it is to put everyone before their responsibilities”, explains a close friend of the Prime Minister. No question under these conditions that the next Council of Ministers, the day the CMP will meet, authorizes the government to use 49-3 if necessary, there will always be time to notify the next day. And for Matignon, nothing prevents in the event of failure to carry out a new reading of the bill, within a time constrained constitutionally by article 47-1. “The 49-3 would give a form of legitimacy to the continuation or rebound of the movement”, however warns a member of the government.
Cursed relative majority. Every voice counts. A single deputy can tear apart the pension reform and annihilate the mandate of Emmanuel Macron. “If the text is not adopted, it is the end of the five-year term”, explained in substance Tuesday in a group meeting the deputy Renaissance Jean-René Cazeneuve. “We would lose our ability to reform and have the texts adopted”, sums up a pillar of the majority.
“A mentally ill pressure on the shoulders”
So, we get out the calculators. Before the conquest, you have to secure your back. Less than a dozen recalcitrant voices would wander between the majority groups Renaissance, Horizons and Democrat. But last minute surprises are always possible. “We don’t know how many defections we will have”, admitted an oil of the group in front of the deputy LR Patrick Hetzel. “It’s comfortable to say that we hesitate, but on the day of the vote, you have the pressure of the mentally ill on your shoulders, Thursday at 3 p.m. it will be the climax, you tell yourself that you can change your political career at the push of a button, it makes you think,” observes a parliamentary leader.
Between partners, we gauge each other… not without ulterior motives. No question of being held responsible for an appeal to article 49-3, which would amputate the reform of any parliamentary legitimacy. The culprit is the other! The subject was discussed at a meeting of the Horizons group, with strained relations with Renaissance. “We should not be singled out in the event of failure”, summarizes a framework of the formation of Edouard Philippe.
But it is LR who is at the heart of the game. The right, an unruly and elusive partner. His parliamentary group is fractured despite the deal concluded in January by Eric Ciotti and Elisabeth Borne. These 61 entrepreneurs do as they please, so the president of LR pulls out his files. According to his calculations, between 32 and 35 deputies are guaranteed to vote for the reform. Fifteen are opposed to it and ten remain to be convinced. “Do we take the risk of a vote that can be played with one or two votes in one direction or the other or do we stop being a player?” Sums up a majority official, who believes that we should not not far from 40 LR votes to be quiet.
Elisabeth Borne arrived at Matignon ten months ago, counting on “a perimeter of reasonable people” and remembering that Michel Rocard, with a relative majority, had created the RMI and the CSG. She entered into the pensions file by highlighting her method, “consultation”, which she wanted to make her trademark, including to underline her added value compared to Emmanuel Macron, of whom we can say, at the end of almost six years at the top of the state, that this is not the first propensity. On March 16, the so rational Prime Minister will know if, in an era that is hardly so, she was right.