“Well done for the Attal effect!” : Marine Le Pen laughs, sending this SMS to one of her majority interlocutors. It’s Wednesday February 7 and a survey has just had the effect of a bomb. According to an Ifop survey for Current values, she would obtain 36% in the first round of the presidential election. Shock at the top of the State: “We have a real problem there. Such a score is unprecedented.”
The European approach is not there to reassure the executive. The latest studies by Ifop and Elabe, following the appointment of Gabriel Attal to Matignon, predict a gap of 9 to 11 points between Jordan Bardella’s list and that of Renaissance, whereas it was only Around 4 points last summer – in 2019, the RN only won by 0.9 points.
That wasn’t the plan… The plan was to find a springboard, not a slide. In December, Emmanuel Macron warned Stéphane Séjourné, the secretary general of Renaissance and his future head of the list, it is believed at the time (he has since become Minister of Foreign Affairs): he will have to wait to begin his campaign and postpone the two dates launch dates initially planned for January 22 and February 1. The president first wants to build a one-month government sequence. “In the wake of this moment, we will have to quickly launch the battle to take advantage of the political dynamic,” predicts the leadership of the movement.
The surprise arrival of a new Prime Minister, this famous “Attal effect”, therefore had to reshuffle all the cards, which is why it was recorded before the June election and not after. Gabriel Attal never misses an opportunity to attack the RN, everywhere, all the time, especially during questions to the government which he loves, and even in his general policy statement. That day, he only targeted this formation, with in particular its proposal to give priority to national law over European law, presented as “a disguised Frexit, which would weaken France”. “We cannot want to leave Europe unless we want to serve another country, another power,” he adds – a serious accusation if ever there was one. At the same time, as they say on the floor above, the Prime Minister defines a position of principle: “I consider that the republican arc is the Hemicycle”, he confides to Le Monde. Arc that Emmanuel Macron had already drawn by inviting all the parties represented in the National Assembly to Saint-Denis.
The RN at the center (of all attention)? “I am very intrigued by his strategy, he talks about us constantly without being asked,” notes a party official. During the peasant crisis, he spoke of himself as Jordan Bardella meeting the fishermen; that suits us, it shows that we are on the ground, it speaks well of us.”
Attal-Bardella, the face-to-face, the political-media poster of this semester. But the Prime Minister, although he will participate in meetings, does not intend to debate with the president of the RN to avoid nationalizing the European campaign and being accused of abandoning his clothes as head of government for those of leader of the majority . The bale of straw, however, poorly conceals the boxing ring. “The president did not take Gabriel to go and discuss with the farmers, he is against the job, it is the first time that he has bought boots, observes an Elysian visitor. No, the job description of Gabriel is to contain the RN in the same deciles as us.” To achieve this, the Prime Minister wants to continue to embody authority and duty against the feeling of disintegration of society, as he did in National Education, and move forward on certain reforms such as that of insurance -unemployment while pushing back other, stinging ones, such as that of the civil service (after the election and after the Olympic Games, another threat for the executive).
There are words, and there are actions. From the immigration bill to the constitutional revision on the end of land rights in Mayotte, has the government chosen to settle on the ground of the RN to better fight it? In sports it’s called playing away and it’s always more difficult. “Mr. Attal, with you in Matignon, our ideological victories are accelerating. It is no longer only our observations and our diagnoses that impose themselves on you, but now our values and our solutions”, launches the RN deputy for the Somme, Jean-Philippe Tanguy, February 5, during the examination of the motion of censure tabled by the left.
In a small committee, Marine Le Pen takes stock of the last few weeks: “They open up gaps which philosophically prove us right. Since, for example, a criminal record is a condition for regularization, why would it not be so for naturalization and acquisition of French nationality? They renounce principles which allowed them to oppose us.”
Tension and confusion were felt this week, through a small parliamentary incident. We saw the president of the Renaissance group, Sylvain Maillard, request a suspension of the session after the Secretary of State for the City, Sabrina Agresti-Roubache, had expressed an “opinion of wisdom” on two amendments proposed by the RN: out of the question of favoring the adoption of proposals defended by Marine Le Pen’s party. “A minister called to order by a parliamentarian for simply having expressed an opinion of wisdom, long live the separation of powers!”, we denounce to the RN.
The candidate for the Elysée is careful not to give in. It’s no longer Marine Le Pen, it’s Marine Protée. The strategy of vagueness, still applied these days to the social conflict at the SNCF, must make it elusive. “They don’t know how to attack us, we don’t have anything to offer them, so they use shameful arguments, like the parody of Marine Le Pen’s wishes, or the shameful visual on Marine Le Pen and Putin represented on a wedding cake for Valentine’s Day published by Renaissance, but the truth is that they say that we must attack us on our work but they do not attack us on the merits.”
The Macronists hope to find the colors they are sorely lacking at the moment when the European campaign really begins. The president plans to deliver a speech in March. “For the moment it’s boxing in the void,” they say at the Elysée. “Our strength is to have a record,” rejoices an outgoing MEP. “We have been on the right side of history on Covid and Ukraine.” However, the majority is approaching the campaign on the defensive, and the agricultural crisis, by calling into question the virtues of the Green deal, has not helped the cause. “Need for Europe”: the slogan for the campaign is ready. It’s no longer moving forward, it’s moving backwards. “A few years ago, we would have rather said ‘Want Europe,'” admits someone close to the head of state.
The key to the confrontation which will take place on June 9 at the polls lies in participation. “To confront the RN, we must over-mobilize our voters without over-mobilizing theirs,” warns a majority official. For the moment, it is the opposite. Structurally, RN voters mobilize less during the day of the election, that’s why Bardella is putting the presidential election in the European ballot. It’s false, but it’s mobilizing.” So far so bad – fortunately the campaign has not started.