At the very start of its mandate, the Express think tank is formulating its proposals for reforming the country without delay. Ideas in which, you never know, the tenant of the Elysée could draw to enrich his project.
While foreign policy once again did not dominate the presidential campaign debates, the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, the first hot war of the new Cold War, constitutes a geopolitical turning point. The event is already having global repercussions. It does not modify the new paradigm of international relations which is the Sino-American conflictuality. On the contrary, it leads to a crystallization of blocs: democracies against autocracies. It is more necessary than ever for France, which remains influential beyond the end of the presidency of the Council of the EU, to give impetus to Europe, a player in its own right and a power of balance.
In the immediate term, it is imperative to continue to help Ukraine exercise its right to self-defence. More than sanctions, the supply of arms, financial and humanitarian aid, the sending of experts to establish proof of war crimes or crimes against humanity with a view to international justice make the difference. The President of the Republic could respond to President Zelensky’s invitation to recall this concrete solidarity and to discuss the international guarantees to be given to the status of neutrality. If only the Ukrainian president, who has earned his stripes as a warlord, can decide on the right moment for a ceasefire and the inevitable negotiation with Vladimir Putin, when the time comes it will be necessary to resume contact with the Kremlin and, more long term, to avoid an insurmountable iron curtain with Russian society, young people in particular, which would not strengthen Europe’s future security.
G7 foreign ministers meeting in Liverpoool, on December 11, 2021, in the United Kingdom.
afp.com/PHIL NOBLE
The consequences of the war, like the lessons learned from the long health crisis, validate the visionary proposals of the Sorbonne speech. Europeans must not only express their relief at an American return to our continent, but take their destiny into their own hands. The search for strategic autonomy – which comes in military, economic, industrial, financial and technological terms vis-à-vis continental States – must remain at the heart of our action. The authorities in Brussels were able to act urgently and invest in sectors (vaccines, supply of armaments) in which they had no competence. The partnership with Germany should remain the engine of Europe by its force of conviction with divided actors, but by aggregating goodwill – Italian, Spanish and others. Recourse to qualified majority would help to break the paralysis.
But in this new context, we must also be aware that the much invoked “international community” very often boils down to the West in the broad sense, including Japan and South Korea. The States which did not vote against Russia at the United Nations represent two-thirds of the planet: in addition to China, let us mention India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Mexico and 16 African countries. It will be necessary to avoid a break between “the West and the Rest”.