Lula in a duel against Bolsonaro, a victory in the 1st round possible?

Lula in a duel against Bolsonaro a victory in the

BRAZIL PRESIDENTIAL. The first round of the 2022 presidential election in Brazil will be played on October 2, the outcome of the vote seems already known and should see Lula and Bolsonaro qualified, unless the first obtains an absolute majority of votes.

[Mis à jour le 22 septembre 2022 à 15h54] A duel between Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, and Jaïr Bolsonaro. This is what is announced as the result of the first round of the Brazilian presidential election scheduled for October 2, 2022. The two candidates, one on the left and the other on the far right, have monopolized the lead in the polls since the start of the campaign but it was Lula who climbed to the first step with more or less ahead of his direct competitor. The gap has nevertheless narrowed in the last survey published on September 15 with only 12 points of difference.

The presidential election in Brazil should therefore offer no surprises for its first round unless the ballot is sufficient to elect a new president. There is only one way to do this: win an absolute majority of votes on October 2. A conceivable scenario according to Gaspard Estrada, executive director of the Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean who on September 21 in the Sunday newspaper claimed that “Lula could win this election in the first round”. The former head of state, with two terms between 2003 and 2010, systematically exceeds 40% of voting intentions in the polls and is even credited with 45% of the votes in the latest study, from there to reaching the 51% there are only a few steps. This would still ignore the strength of Jair Bolsonaro’s electorate determined to see his candidate re-elected for a second term.

Very polarized around the two leading candidates and in the midst of an economic, social and institutional crisis, the Brazilian presidential election should be played around what the politicians represent and in this field the advantage seems to go to Lula. The candidate of the Workers’ Party presents himself as the candidate of the popular classes, democracy and the environment, while Jaïr Bolsonaro militates for neo-liberal policies more aimed at large industrialists and still aspires to overthrow the institutional political system.

In Brazil, a presidential election before a possible insurrection?

In Brazil, the presidential election is taking place in a burning context: an accumulation of economic, social and institutional crises. If the first two are partly cyclical, the third is the fruit of years of distrust and disappointment of the Brazilian people with regard to politicians. Bad relations which have worsened further in recent years under the mandate of Jaïr Bolosonaro who is often the first to fire red balls at institutions, especially judicial institutions. Since he came to power, the Brazilian president has regularly attacked the Supreme Federal Court, the highest legal body, or the reliability of the electoral system. A strategy of discrediting which accelerated during the campaign as if to prepare the contestation of the ballot in the event of defeat.

It is this hypothesis, already mentioned by Bolsonarist activists, which gives rise to concerns among Brazilian voters: will Jaïr Bolsonaro call for an insurrection if he loses to Lula in the presidential election? During recent events, including the demonstration of September 7, 2022 for the bicentenary of Brazilian independence, the Bolsonarists have made no secret of their readiness to invade the streets and perhaps institutions. These statements raise fears of a tropical version of the Capitol invasion that shook the United States after Donald Trump’s defeat in 2020.

What are the polls for the 2022 presidential election in Brazil?

Throughout the campaign, Lula remained at the top of voting intentions in the polls and at times had a comfortable lead over Jair Bolsonaro. A few weeks before the election, the trends remain the same but the far-right candidate is catching up. According to the study published by Datafolha on September 15, 2022, Lula is credited with 45% of voting intentions versus 33% for Bolsonaro. The leftist dissident Ciro Gomes comes next but far behind with between 7 to 9% of the voting intentions while Simone Tebet painfully exceeds 5% and all the other candidates gravitate around 1%. The polling institute has tested the hypothesis of a Lula – Bolsonaro duel in the second round and for the time being the advantage goes to the left-wing candidate who is credited with 54% of the vote against 38% for Jaïr Bolsonaro.

Who are the presidential candidates in Brazil?

A year before the presidential election in Brazil, the candidacies of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and of Jair Bolsonaro were in no doubt. The two politicians officially entered the electoral race in July and have been campaigning for several months. By running for the Brazilian presidential election, Lula is returning to politics after being imprisoned and therefore deprived of election in 2018. Freed from his conviction deemed biased by the Supreme Court, in 2021, Lula is seeking a third term and has chances to win thanks to its popularity with the working classes.

The other heavyweight in the Brazilian presidential election and the current head of state, Jaïr Bolsonaro, who hopes to be re-elected despite a mandate marked by revolts and criticism of his policy. The Brazilian president shows a decline in popularity among his supporters including right-wing voters, the army and big bosses but has regained the confidence of some during the campaign.

Nine other candidates have entered the race, including one who appears as the third man in the election: Ciro Gomes. This former center-left minister wants to be another voice for voters disappointed by Lula’s PT, but the Brazilian press does not rule out a possible rapprochement between the two left-wing candidates. Still on the left is the dissident candidate Vera Lucia Salgadothe communist Sofia Manzano and Leonardo Pericles of the popular union. right this time Simone Tebet and Soraya Thronicke are center-right candidates while Jose Maria Eymael is further to the right of the political spectrum. There is also the liberal-thinking candidate Felipe d’Avila.

When will the 2022 presidential election take place in Brazil?

The Brazilian presidential election is scheduled for Sundays October 2 and 30, 2022. The ballot to elect the head of state is held every four years and the last vote, which was held on October 28, 2018, was sacred Jair Bolsonaro. This year the politician is a candidate for his succession for a second consecutive term. It should be noted that the 1988 Constitution limits the exercise of the function of President of the Federative Republic of Brazil to two consecutive terms but does not prevent later former heads of state from representing themselves, like Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva who governed the country from 2003 to 2010.

Once elected, the President of the Federative Republic of Brazil is in place for four years. But before settling at the head of the country it is necessary to win the majority vote in two rounds. A victory in the first round of the presidential election is possible if a candidate wins an absolute majority of the votes, ie 50% of the votes plus one vote. Otherwise, the two candidates in the lead are qualified for the second round and it is then the one who obtains the best score in the ballot box who is elected. Each candidate presents himself with a running mate who is a candidate for the vice-presidency. During the presidential election, Brazilians elect both the head of state and his right-hand man. He too is elected for a term of four.

On the suffrage side, the participation rate is generally high due to the compulsory vote imposed by the 1988 Constitution which obliges all citizens from 18 to 70 to participate in all the elections. An obligation from which Brazilians aged 16 to 18, those over 70, but also soldiers and illiterate people are exempt. This obligation does not prevent an increase in the abstention rate in recent years. In the 2018 presidential election, 21.3% of voters abstained.