Published: Just now
full screen
Next
On May 15, Aleksandr Lukashenko appeared on a visit to the country’s Air Force Central Command – wearing uniform and with a bandage around his hand.
1 of 2 Photo: Belarus President’s Office press department/AP/TT
More and more rumors abound about Belarus’s authoritarian leader Lukashenko’s health. The question is who can take over his post.
From the Russian side, everything is being done to increase control over the country, according to analyst Jakob Hedenskog.
– You want to avoid at all costs that Belarus could hypothetically get closer to the West, he says.
Belarus dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko has been president for almost 30 years. But after first canceling a lunch with Russian President Putin at the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow and then disappearing from public view for several days, speculation about his health has intensified.
On May 15, Lukashenko appeared again during a visit to the country’s Air Force Central Command. He then wore a uniform and had a bandage around his hand – which further fueled the rumours.
According to Jakob Hedenskog, analyst at the Center for Eastern European Studies at the Institute for Foreign Policy, there are various constitutional procedures regarding how Belarus should be governed in the event the president disappears.
– But since the country is a dictatorship, practice is not always followed. And under Lukashenko there is a vacuum, which – when he disappears – must be filled. Then a power struggle could arise within the regime’s elite and not least within the security services, he says.
– In that case, who would emerge victorious from the power struggle can only be speculated about.
“Russia wants control”
Hedenskog emphasizes that it is only possible to comment hypothetically on a number of possible scenarios. But it is clear that the Russian side is very keen to have control over the person who will one day replace Aleksandr Lukashenko.
– In Russia, you are very keen that it becomes a person you trust fully. They want to avoid at all costs that the whole thing develops into a situation where Belarus is alienated from Russia and in the long run, hypothetically, approaches the West. That’s what you fear most of all, he says.
Lukashenko is one of Vladimir Putin’s closest allies. During Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine, the Belarusian leader has provided air bases in the country for Russian planes, but not troops used directly in the war.
From the Russian side, however, they want to increase control. A hypothetical scenario is that Russia smuggles in personnel from the Russian security service FSB to secure control of Belarusian television and radio – and thus prepares the way for an incorporation of the country, according to Jakob Hedenskog.
– The person that Russia would then place in power, I would say, will be the one who will be responsible for incorporating Belarus into Russia. Maybe not as president, but in the form of governor or something similar, he says.
– That person could then sign Belarus’ “voluntary” accession to the Russian Federation.
“Increases speculation”
No official statement regarding Lukashenko’s health has come from his staff. It is also something that blocks the outside world’s speculation, according to Hedenskog.
– This is always the case with dictatorships where everything is based on the leaders being seen and noticed – and that everything they do is shown on television. When Lukashenko doesn’t show up for several days and then shows up looking sick, the speculation increases, he says.
– At the same time, we must be clear that we do not know what his state of health is. Everything is very uncertain.
In her exile, Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tichanovskaya has called on the outside world to prepare for all conceivable scenarios.
According to Jakob Hedenskog, however, the country’s opposition has no opportunity to come forward in the current situation.
– The opposition is either imprisoned or in exile. Tichanovskaja is herself based in Lithuania, and in her home country sentenced in her absence to 15 years in prison for treason, he says.
– So I don’t see that there is any chance for the opposition at the moment to fill the vacuum that would arise if Lukashenko drops out.
FACTS
Belarus during the war
Two weeks before the large-scale invasion of Ukraine broke out, Russia and Belarus held joint military exercises, including near the border between Belarus and Ukraine.
In the February 24 invasion, Russian forces entered Ukraine from Belarus, giving them the shortest possible route to the capital, Kiev.
The Western world’s punitive sanctions due to the war have also included Belarus.
During the course of the war, Belarus has periodically held emergency preparedness exercises. Russia has also fired robots into Ukraine from Belarus, which Lukashenko initially tried to deny. Several air bases are used by Russian planes.
Facts: Foreign Policy Institute and others.
Read more