A new electoral setback for Les Républicains? After the split caused by the alliance between Eric Ciotti and the RN, the result of the LR candidates in the legislative elections could take on the appearance of a sanction.
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Stuck between the three blocs competing to win the 2024 legislative elections, Les Républicains are struggling to survive. While a tiny portion has decided to follow its boss, Eric Ciotti, in an alliance with the National Rally, the historic branch continues to proclaim its independence. Result: the party is running in a scattered order in the ballot. After several very disappointing electoral results for LR, in the last legislative elections and then in the European elections, LR risks paying dearly for its quarrels again this Sunday evening. But will the voters’ punishment be harsher with regard to Eric Ciotti or his detractors?
In a few dozen constituencies, voters have to choose between two candidates endorsed by LR: one benefits from the alliance with the RN, the other not. This is the case of the 1st constituency of Alpes-Maritimes, where Eric Ciotti tries to get re-elected with Virgile Vanier facing him. Enough to confuse a crucial election. To add to the confusion, the outgoing deputy for Lot Aurélien Pradié announced his departure from LR on Wednesday. Now a candidate under the label of his micro-party “Du Courage”, he assured The Dispatch to be followed by “30 candidates including 10 outgoing candidates”.
So what can we expect? In the polls published before the end of the official campaign, LR came in fourth place. According to the latest Elabe barometer for La Tribune Dimanche and BFMTV, published Friday morning, the historic LR branch was credited with 9% of voting intentions in the first round of the legislative elections, far behind the RN, the New Popular Front and the presidential coalition. Furthermore, just under one in five voters for François-Xavier Bellamy in the European elections chose an RN candidate in the legislative elections. The projections after the second round attributed between 30 and 40 seats to the non-aligned LR to Eric Ciotti.
What was the LR’s result in the last elections?
The Republicans had a disappointing performance to say the least during the last European elections, on June 9. The list led by François-Xavier Bellamy gathered 7.24% of the votes and sent 6 deputies to the European Parliament. The French right thus came in 5th position, behind LFI, the Socialist Party, Renaissance, and very far from the National Rally which achieved a score of 31.47% nationally.
Already, the year 2022 had been severe for the LR party: during the presidential election, its candidate Valérie Pécresse only received 4.78% of the votes in the first round. A few weeks later, the legislative elections were finally more lenient: LR had received 10.42% of the votes in the first round. At the end of the second round, the party had won 61 seats, which allowed it to influence all the debates by often serving as a supporting force to the presidential majority. But two years later, LR is not even sure of being able to regain this role, especially since the Macronist camp also fears a rout at the polls.
Eric Ciotti implodes LR in the middle of the campaign
The announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly on June 9 was not good news for the Les Républicains party, which had just recorded a disappointing result in the European elections. But three days later, LR president Eric Ciotti dealt a new blow to the political party: “We need an alliance with the National Rally,” declared the outgoing deputy from Nice on the TF1 news on June 12. An announcement that took all the big shots in his party by surprise. A few hours later, an LR political bureau convened urgently voted unanimously to exclude Eric Ciotti, while he locked himself in the party headquarters. Eric Ciotti refused the bureau’s decision, objecting that it had not been convened according to the rules set out in the party’s statutes. The next day, he filed a legal appeal and continued to claim to be LR.
From then on, two “LR” parties coexisted in the legislative campaign. Eric Ciotti managed to bring together 61 candidates for a double LR-RN nomination, a majority of whom did not come from the ranks of his party. Among them we find several CNews columnists: Guillaume Bigot, Sébastien Laye, Philippe Fontana and Charles Prats. A court decision finally suspended the exclusion of Eric Ciotti, allowing him to enjoy his powers as party president throughout his campaign. According to testimonies from members of the historic branch of LR, the outgoing deputy from Nice took the opportunity to block access to the party’s bank account and prevent the slightest payment to candidates who had not followed him. The campaign therefore continues to be tough.