The government is delighted and sees the first effects of its sobriety plan. On social networks, however, the announcement of the 2.5% drop in greenhouse gas emissions in France in 2022 does not arouse much enthusiasm. Ecologists, energy experts, or even simple citizens… Everyone has their own little negative comment. Well Named. Because to truly appreciate this modest improvement in our carbon footprint, we have to look at where we come from and where we are going.
“First of all, the recent decline does not catch up with the 2015-2018 period during which our emissions remained stagnant or slightly up, recalls Nicolas Goldberg, Energy Partner at Colombus Consulting. At the time, the economy was in phase of growth and cheap oil. This period is a bit of a ‘climate burden’ that we are still dragging around”, underlines the expert.
Over the recent period, other factors have put the improvement on the CO2 front into perspective. First, the decrease in emissions in industry remains suspect. For many observers, it is mainly explained by the decline in activity linked to higher energy prices and not by massive decarbonization. “The energy consumption data in industry confirm this: we observe a sharp drop in September. But it was at this time that calendar prices began to soar”, specifies Nicolas Goldberg. Moreover, the 2.5% does not take into account international flights to France or maritime transport to our country. It is therefore difficult to settle for a modest reduction in our greenhouse gas emissions.
An obsolete goal
Especially since the future looks complicated. To comply with the European “Fit for 55” package, whose ambitions take better account of global warming than our national objectives, we will have to reduce our CO2 emissions by 55% by 2030. In other words, the threshold that we had set for 2022 is obsolete. It corresponds to an old prescription that has still not been revised. But it is the data concerning future electricity production that worries Nicolas Goldberg the most: “If you look at the evolution of the load factor of our reactors, you see that in 2035, according to RTE, we will be lower than in 2019 in particular because of the ten-year inspections! But France will need much more electricity, to run 15 to 16 million vehicles equipped with batteries by 2035 but also to produce hydrogen”.
It is therefore time to accelerate on renewable energies. The recent commission of inquiry into France’s loss of energy independence reminds us that we have fallen behind in this area. For years, national electricity production was stagnating or even declining, building regulations favored the use of gas, hydrogen was not part of the landscape and electric vehicles were struggling to take off, some have argued. interviewed personalities. This could justify a certain wait-and-see attitude in terms of investment. But this reasoning no longer holds today.