Monday, September 5, the United Kingdom will know the name of its new Prime Minister. Members of the Conservative party have the choice between the current Minister of Foreign Affairs, Liz Truss, and the former Minister of Finance, Rishi Sunak. For two months, the two candidates have been campaigning to take the lead of the party and be appointed head of the British government. The Conservatives having the majority in Parliament, their leader will necessarily be appointed to this post.
A few days before the end, Liz Truss seems to be the overwhelming favorite among the members of the conservative party, who are the only ones to vote for this election. The Minister of Foreign Affairs is well ahead in the polls, a handful of days before the election for the post of Prime Minister, in particular because she has presented herself as a convinced conservative. In any case, this is the opinion of Steven Fielding, professor of political history at the University of Nottingham:
” Liz Truss has managed to convince conservative members that she is a traditional conservative, that she is in favor of lower taxes and a very liberal state. They see her as more favorable to tax cuts than Rishi Sunak. »
And this is also one of the main demands of the 47-year-old candidate: “ What I will do if elected Prime Minister is keep taxes low, revive the economy and unlock the potential of the UK. The goal is to allow people to have more money in their pockets. It was this speech that seduced the members of the conservative parties.
“The right wing of public opinion”
The 160,000 members of the Tories will choose which of these two candidates will lead the party. An electoral body which does not even represent 1% of the whole of the British population, and considered to be the hardest conservatives. For Steven Fielding, this is also one of the reasons why certain subjects have imposed themselves in this campaign:
” Members of the Conservative Party, when it comes to tax cuts, the place of the state, whether the lockdown should have happened or not, are on the right wing of British public opinion. »
For Philippe Marlière, professor of political science at University College London, these members ” are further to the right than most Tory MPs “. They then turned to Liz Truss, more to the right than Rishi Sunak, and above all more determined to put an end to Brexit. ” She is the one who will be firm with France on the issue of refugees in the Channel, she is the one who will deal with the Northern Irish protocol even if it will upset the European Union and violate international law. », Analyzes Steven Fielding.
Among this handful of voters, Liz Truss is also seen as the most loyal to the party. She did not resign as minister unlike Rishi Sunak, who precipitated Boris Johnson’s departure in July. The one who will become ex-Prime Minister is still popular among this fringe of rich, white voters, over 60 years old. These social characteristics also raise the hypothesis that these voters were potentially not ready to vote for a candidate from an Indian family. ” For some it’s a step they can’t take “, admits Philippe Marlière.
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A Rishi Sunak too “ centrist »?
The former Chancellor of the Exchequer first tried to distance himself from a Liz Truss, whom he considered too right-wing, too Thatcherian. He wanted to show himself more centrist “, explains Philippe Marlière, particularly on economic issues: “ He tried to say that right now it was not really a good idea to cut taxes, that we had to try to be more realistic. »
Because on the other side, Liz Truss promised to lower taxes, and this, especially for the very rich Britons. This vision of Rishi Sunak did not really please: ” Obviously, it went wrong with this very right-wing conservative base », conceives Philippe Marlière. Rishi Sunak, in charge of finances during the Covid-19 pandemic, offers to repay the debt incurred as soon as possible: “ We all knew there would be a bill to pay. So the question is whether we should pay this bill ourselves or should we put it on the country’s credit card and pass it on to our children and grandchildren. I don’t think it’s fair to them. »
This ” rising star of British conservatism “, as Philippe Marlière describes it, wanted to win back the votes of these 160,000 members of the Conservative Party. He changed his strategy: In recent days, Rishi Sunak has tried to give a helm to the right “, assures the professor of the University College of London. But that wasn’t enough. ” It does not work in my opinion because this move to the right is very late and, above all, it is considered ultra demagogic », Asserts Philippe Marlière. During the last weeks of campaigning, he lambasted the government’s decision to implement a containment during the pandemic. ” The government has given scientists too much power “he was indignant in the columns of the magazine The Spectator.
For her part, Liz Truss continued to soar in the polls and draw parallels with a Margaret Thatcher whom she admires. Barring a dramatic change, it is she who will take the reins of the Conservative Party and will settle at 10 Downing Street, Monday, September 5.