Political considerations sometimes invite themselves into the icy straightness of mathematical equations. This has been the case in recent days with the thorny issue of the remuneration of the Livret A, the most popular savings product with the French and in particular the middle class. Since January, the latter have placed nearly 24.5 billion euros there and the total outstanding amount of the savings account rose at the start of the summer to nearly 400 billion euros, a record level.
It must be said that depositing a few peanuts each month on this risk-free investment pays off more and more: in the space of two years, his remuneration has risen from 0.5% to 3%. The reason ? The strict application of a learned equation. To put it simply, the Livret A rate depends on the evolution over the last six months of inflation (excluding tobacco) and short-term interest rates, which are directly influenced by the decisions of the European Central Bank. , in Frankfurt. In fact, the Governor of the Banque de France turns the famous equation, then sends his proposals to the Minister of the Economy, who decides. The next decision must take place in the coming days for application on August 1st. If we grind this damn model, the Livret A rate should theoretically rise from 3% to just over 4%, its highest level since 2008!
For a weakened executive who must calm public opinion white-hot by the surge in inflation over the past few months, the temptation is great to submit to mathematics. A measure of purchasing power which would primarily benefit those who have well-stocked woolen stockings, but which would also have the advantage of not costing the finances of the State a penny.
The housing crisis in the background
Except that the Livret A is also used to finance social housing. Nearly 60% of the collection is managed by the Caisse des dépôts, which uses this money to grant loans to social landlords and build HLMs. However, an increase in the passbook rate immediately affects the cost of borrowing for lessors: according to the calculations of the economist Eric Dor, the increase in the rate of remuneration from 3 to 4% would increase their interest expense. just over 1.8 billion euros… Not really a good idea at a time when France is going through a deep crisis in housing and new construction. To raise even today the rate of the livret A, is to succumb to the tyranny of the short term to the detriment of the long term needs of the country. Pure calculation, in short.