Lithuania restricts train traffic to one of Russia’s main military areas – read what may follow from the Kaliningrad dispute

The situation between Kaliningrad and its neighbor Lithuania has intensified since last Saturday. On Wednesday, a spokesman for Russia’s foreign ministry warned Russia of retaliating for non-diplomatic retaliation.

We compiled five questions and answers about the situation.

Lithuania has begun to implement EU sanctions that came into force this week, banning the transport of many products to Russia by rail. The sanctions are a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February.

Kaliningrad is a Russian island on the shores of the Baltic Sea. It is separate from mainland Russia, so the railways play a very important role in its maintenance.

Kaliningrad is separated from mainland Russia by a strip of land belonging to Lithuania and Poland, designated the Suwalki Corridor. Russian trains must therefore use Lithuanian territory to get to Kaliningrad.

The Russian leadership has described the blocking of rail transport as a blockade or provocation. According to Russia, Lithuania must allow transportation, otherwise Russia will initiate considerable retaliation against Lithuania.

Secretary-General and President of the Russian Security Council Vladimir Putin an important ally Nikolai Patrushev visited Kaliningrad on Tuesday. The visit has been seen as an indication of the Kremlin’s interest in the situation in Kaliningrad.

Patrushev speaks loudly about Lithuania’s decision. He also said Russia would respond with actions that “have negative consequences for Lithuanians”.

Kaliningrad has a population of about half a million. Due to the transport ban, it would not be possible to bring building materials, coal, components from the electronics industry and luxury products such as alcohol into Russia by rail.

When information came about the tightening of the blockade, hoarding and queuing of some products were immediately observed in Kaliningrad.

Kaliningrad has a large port and the city could also be largely serviced by ships.

Senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Jussi Lassila considers, however, that sea maintenance would not be a viable solution, as the role of rail has been so significant for Kaliningrad.

– In theory, transferring its cargo to ships could be possible, but in practice apparently not. There is not so much transport capacity, Lassila says.

Again, it is extremely important for the Russian leadership to be able to show the people that it cares, even as the West tries to disrupt the lives of the Russian people.

– Russia has tried to circumvent sanctions whenever possible. Russia wants to show that sanctions do not matter. But for some reason in this matter, Russia has reacted as if this [saarto] would be a matter of life and death.

A Croatian journalist was also reported in the Russian media on Wednesday Antun Rošan writing (switch to another service)according to which Lithuania could next shut down gas supplies to Kaliningrad.

Kaliningrad is one of the most important military areas in Russia. It is home to the main base of the Russian Baltic Fleet. In addition, nuclear missiles and strong air defense have been deployed in the area. In a war situation, shipping from the Kaliningrad could be blocked by shipping in the Baltic Sea and the forces there would threaten the Baltic states.

Researcher Jussi Lassila highlights the location of Kaliningrad as the westernmost part of Russia. For the city’s residents, relations with the West are more natural and important than elsewhere in Russia.

Lassila recalls that Kaliningrad has long had a strong opposition spirit.

In 2010, very large demonstrations were seen there, leading to a change in the administration of the city. The demonstrations originated for small, local reasons. Kaliningrad’s central location with the EU and NATO is likely to increase Moscow’s concerns about the rise of opposition in the region.

The Russian leadership now wants to prevent these outbursts.

Western sanctions have had a particularly strong impact in Kaliningrad, but Lassila believes the impact will only intensify by the autumn.

In the autumn, Russia will hold governor elections in nine regions, Kaliningrad being one of them. Lassila thinks that showing the people of Kaliningrad that the cause of their difficulties is in the West would make central government a little more popular.

Russian retaliation is expected in the Russian media. Part Izvestija (you switch to another service)The experts interviewed by the magazine have been of the opinion that Russia should not take very large countermeasures.

– The answer is not diplomatic but practical. What kind of retaliation is and when it will be imposed will depend on what changes are made, Zaharova said.

According to Zaharova, Russia expects the European Union and Lithuania to retreat.

According to Izvestia, Russia’s retaliation could somehow affect Estonia and Latvia and restrictions with them, as apparently Lithuania’s economic retaliation would not be so flea-ridden.

Governor of Kaliningrad Anton Alihanov Lithuania and other Baltic countries, such as alcohol exported to Russia, wrote on Wednesday Tass (switch to another service)

Russia has also warned NATO against using the term “Article 5” for the situation in Kaliningrad. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned “Europeans of dangerous rhetorical games in the context of conflict,” said Ria Novosti.

On Tuesday, the United States reiterated its position on the fifth article of the military alliance NATO, according to which an attack on one NATO country is an attack on the alliance.

Military experts think it would be no problem for Russia to take over the Suwalki corridor in a sudden onslaught.

Lithuania has only about 20,000 soldiers in its armed forces. NATO has a standby force of a few thousand troops in the area, but they could hardly prevent a strong enough attack.

What is essential is what would happen after the Russian attack. Jussi Lassila emphasizes that it would then be a question of NATO’s credibility as a defense alliance. NATO would be forced to respond to the attack and recapture the area.

Surrendering to a full-scale war with NATO would be a great gamble for Russia. In any case, its negative consequences would be so far-reaching that an attack seems highly unlikely.

Lassila also reminds that at present Russia does not have the resources to attack, as all its key forces are concentrated in Ukraine.

In addition, Belarus has a very strong anti-war climate. Russia should carry out its attack through Belarus. The war would likely weaken the president Alexander Lukashenko position even more and this is hardly what the Kremlin wants.

Jussi Lassila also points out that Russia’s permanent goal is to keep NATO forces far from its borders. Lithuania’s intimidation and crackdown on austerity measures are already working against Russia, giving NATO a well-founded reason to increase its power in Russia’s neighborhood.

You can discuss the topic on June 23rd. until 11 p.m.