The 27 member countries of the European Union, as well as Great Britain, must soon decide whether or not to include the Iranian Revolutionary Guards on their list of terrorist entities. A request that will be at the heart of the gathering of the Iranian diaspora this Monday in Strasbourg. What consequences would such a measure have? Answers with Majid Golpour, expert on Iranian issues with the EU.
RFI: Britain, Germany, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic are for the registration of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist entity, and it would seem that they have attracted the support of France despite the reluctance Paris initials. Are we witnessing today a turning point in Europe’s position vis-à-vis the Islamic Republic? And if so, what are the motivations?
Majid Golpur: The strategic shift on the part of the European Union with regard to the Islamic Republic began more than two months ago. Exactly since November 9, we have had a break in European interparliamentary relations with iran. The European Parliament has severed all its relationship with [Téhéran] due to extreme violation human rights in iran.
Then there was a whole series of European sanctions decreed by the Commission, which, in a very reasoned and well-argued way, targeted eminent personalities, persons and entities of the regime, in particular the Minister of the Interior, heads provincial authorities, law enforcement agencies, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, public radio and television officials. To date, the list of Iranian persons and entities subject to sanctions by the EU, in this context, includes approximately 150 persons and entities.
On December 12, an official European Commission document announced the adoption of new conclusions with regard to the Islamic Republic, condemning “ the unacceptable crackdown on protests in Iran and the human rights situation “, thus providing support for the ongoing challenge. So we are already at a strategic turning point. I believe that the room for maneuver to obtain a change of behavior from the regime, or to obtain the change of the regime, is shrinking more and more.
The European Commission, which is the authority in charge of preparing and coordinating the sanctions, is today under pressure from the European Parliament to sanction the Revolutionary Guards. But the implementation of this action encounters legal and security complications, because it is difficult to assimilate the Revolutionary Guard Corps to terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda or the Islamic State. This is an official army of a country, with highly developed networks…
And very powerful…
Yes, very powerful too. This action is thus laborious, but it is being done. There are also considerations related to the Iran Nuclear Program Agreement (JCPOA) which is still not shelved by European institutions.
If Europe manages to include the Revolutionary Guards on the list of terrorist organizations, what will be the consequences for the Tehran regime, given the economic weight of this entity?
The consequences will be all over the place. Because this decision would lead to the rupture of all economic relations of the Revolutionary Guards. The Islamic Republic has developed, especially since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, vast exchange networks in nine countries of the region and all these parallel markets are coordinated by the Revolutionary Guards. The inclusion of the latter on the list of terrorist organizations would create an obligation for the international banking and financial authorities to put an end to all transactions with them.
If such a decision were made, any contact whatsoever would be considered illegal intercourse under international law. This could lead to the isolation of this organization and greatly reduce the room for maneuver of the Islamic Republic and its unhealthy influences in the region, for example, in Iraq, Lebanon or Syria.
The United States, under Donald Trump, put the Revolutionary Guards on the list of terrorist entities and this measure still stands. Wouldn’t a similar position on the part of Europe further push the Ayatollah Khamenei towards its alliance with China and Russia?
The sanctions established under Donald Trump against the Islamic Republic of Iran were intended to isolate Europeans in their trade with Iran. Hence the idea of secondary sanctions, which directly affected European companies, whereas today we are talking directly about regime change. If Europe succeeds in adopting this motion, a rather powerful international front made up of Australia, New Zealand, Canada, America and Europe would be constituted and in this case, it is not not sure that Russia and China will stay with the Islamic Republic.