Is Ukraine’s counter-offensive underway or not?
Lieutenant Colonel Peter Lidén answers the most current questions about the war.
Do you think Ukraine’s counter-offensive is underway?
An “offensive” is a military operation and therefore something else and something more than just brigade or even divisional attacks. An operational plan includes preparation, preemptive combat and intelligence gathering, before the actual unit movements and attacks begin. Therefore, the operation – and therefore the “offensive” – has been underway for some time. When and how the attacks begin depends partly on how the preparations and the other conditions turn out.
Are Tuesday’s explosions in Moscow part of it?
Given the above; yes, but it is then a bit of a question of definition. Depending on who carried them out, they may or may not be included in Ukraine’s plan, but in any case they contribute to improving the conditions for the offensive as well.
Do you think Ukraine’s spring/summer offensive will involve attacks on Russian targets?
Absolutely. It is Russian targets, on Ukrainian territory or not, that are the primary – and correct under international law – to strike. Even if, for example, Belarus must also be seen as a belligerent, when Ukrainian targets have been fired upon from Belarusian territory and airspace, it is probably doubtful whether Ukraine wants to strike purely Belarusian targets. However, Russian targets, even in Belarus or Russia, are another matter.
Zelenskyy says a decision has been made on when the offensive will begin – do you think a large-scale attack is imminent?
I think there are expectations of a tangible one, with larger and coordinated offensive movements against Russian positions, both internally in Ukraine and externally. Ukraine has, judged, wanted to gather strength for more than a single such attack – and perhaps also for more than a single offensive. This has also allowed Russian unrest and rifts to spread. It will probably still be difficult to resist the pressure and expectations, of a bigger attacking movement on the ground, for that much longer. After all, it is not only territory, but also the suffering population on that territory that needs to be freed