The war in Ukraine will be decided on the battlefield if Russia runs out of missiles, says Major General Pekka Toveri. However, the missile strikes will continue through the winter.
Vilma Romsi,
Sakari Nuuttila
On Thursday, Russia launched another large-scale missile attack on Ukraine. asked the major general (evp), who has followed the situation in Ukraine from the beginning From Pekka Toverwhat kind of twists and turns in the war of aggression started by Russia can be expected in the following months.
Can Russia’s extensive missile strikes continue?
According to Tover’s estimate, the Russian missile strikes will continue for several more months, through the winter.
Estimates of Russia’s ability to continue strikes have been thrown because Russia has put into use old equipment that has already been decommissioned.
In addition, Russia has so far been able to continue its missile production with components in stock and with components obtained from abroad by circumventing sanctions.
According to the comrade, however, equipment wears out faster than new missiles are produced. Production has only been able to increase by 10–15 percent due to the sanctions.
At the same time, Russia has not been able to bring down Ukraine’s energy infrastructure en masse, which it has been trying to do with missile strikes. Ukraine has managed, partly with the support of the West, to repair its infrastructure quickly.
Why do widespread missile strikes cause relatively few casualties?
Russia has targeted missile strikes especially at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which reduces civilian casualties.
Although, according to Tover, Russia has made clearly intentional attacks on population centers in the past, now its equipment is not enough.
In addition, Ukraine’s air defense and air defense capabilities have improved. According to Tover, Ukraine will turn on the air alarms early so that people have time to protect themselves.
– More deaths are caused by Russian terrorist artillery and the use of rocket launcher systems in areas where population centers are within range. This is the case, for example, in the Kherson or Kharkiv region. It is difficult to give warnings to the civilian population about them, says Toveri.
How has Ukraine’s anti-aircraft capability improved recently?
Ukraine’s air defense has become more effective and it has also been reasonably successful in creating aerial images.
According to Tover, Ukraine shoots down approximately 60–80 percent of Russian missiles. Western aid has been important for Ukraine’s air defense.
However, according to Tover, the Patriot anti-aircraft system sent by the United States will not significantly change the situation.
– Patriot is such an expensive system that it should not be used for an Iranian drone, says Toveri.
Only one battery will be used for Ukraine, so the use must be considered carefully. The comrade estimates that the Patriot will be reserved in case Russia receives ballistic missiles from Iran. Compared to the speed and flight path of an airplane or a cruise missile, a ballistic missile is considerably more difficult to counter, but according to Tover, the Patriot succeeds reasonably well.
What do you find surprising at this stage of the war, when it has been going on for more than 10 months?
Russia has failed in carrying out operations.
According to Tover, the Soviet Union was known for its operational skills during the Second World War. Now, according to Tover, Russia has not mastered the planning, implementation or even defense of basic operations or joint operations of land, sea and air forces.
The comrade describes Russian warfare in general as “surprisingly unprofessional”.
– Proper preparation has not been done and more is being reacted to something. The only way to make war that has been invented is to throw more meat into the meat grinder and hope that at the same time Ukrainian troops will also be consumed.
According to the comrade, the war has progressed to a war of consumption similar to the First World War.
– Let’s shoot enough cannons, find a suitable group to die in the machine gun fire.
How will the war progress after that if Russia runs out of missiles?
War is decided on the battlefield.
The one who is more skilled in conducting operations and more capable of conducting offensive operations will succeed. According to the comrade, the liberation of Kharkiv in September was an example of Ukraine’s operational capability.
– Ukraine is probably better here. If the West continues to support Ukraine, then Russia will start to get weaker.
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