Delivered in an emergency and not without pain following the dissolution of the National Assembly, the New Popular Front remains hopeful of winning the legislative elections. But the challenge and the uncertainties are immense for the great alliance ranging from the social democrats of Place publique, to the Trotskyists of the NPA, including the socialists, communists, ecologists and rebels.
The first challenge for the NFP will be to resist the push of the National Rally. “ Not won », we recognize in the ranks of the alliance. Indeed, if single candidacies will make it possible to protect a certain number of constituencies, in Occitanie, in Auvergne Rhône Alpes, in the West, many outgoing deputies will be under pressure. Example in Normandy, where several constituencies historically marked on the left saw the RN exceed 40% of the votes in the European elections. The danger is also great in Hauts-de-France where the seats of the boss of the communists, Fabien Roussel, or the figure of the rebels, François Ruffin, could shake on their bases. For the historian of the left Mathieu Fulla, the problem is that the NFP and the Nupes before him, “ were unable to reconnect with the working classes in the broad sense “. “ Only France Insoumise has been able to establish itself and strengthen itself in the suburbs and working-class neighborhoods of large cities. “. But in rural and peripheral areas, it is the far right that thrives. Another problem, abstention. If a surge in participation is expected on June 30 and July 7, it is far from certain that this will benefit the union of the left, many abstainers being particularly put off by the Insoumis and the divisions on the left.
The question of vote carryover
The distribution of constituencies has in fact evolved compared to the Nupes agreement. The Socialist Party recovers 100 additional constituencies, most of which were abandoned by La France insoumise. The socialists’ strong argument is that the PS is better able to unite beyond the left thanks to its more moderate profile and its local roots in the event of a second round against the National Rally. Olivier Faure’s movement has therefore recovered entire areas to reconquer such as Pas-de-Calais, or Seine-Maritime, by targeting the constituencies held by the presidential camp. But triangulars should absolutely be avoided. However, the renewed participation should lead to an increase in these matches to three in the second round. La France insoumise also took the risk of investing massively in candidates in Brittany, land of the moderate left. The RN being generally weak, the game is worth the effort according to the rebellious management. A socialist senator, however, displays his pessimism: “ in my department, all the constituencies will swing in favor of the RN “, he explains, “ the main challenge will in fact be to prevent the extreme right from having an absolute majority at the national level. »