These elections could cause the fall of the left in power. And sign the return of the far right. Early legislative elections, launched to general surprise by Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez after the bitter defeat of his alliance in the local elections in May, are taking place this Sunday, July 23 in Spain. “As president of the government and as secretary of the Socialist Party (PSOE), I assume the results and I think that it is necessary to give an answer and to submit our democratic mandate to the popular will”, he had declared in the spring, following a ballot that the opposition had transformed into a referendum on its policy. Two months later, the left-wing coalition of the head of government is threatened by a possible alliance between the right and the extreme right.
Two blocks clash this Sunday. On one side: the left-wing coalition between the social-democratic PSOE, the radicals and the separatists, currently in power. On the other: the Catholic liberal right of the People’s Party (PP) which could ally itself, in order to obtain a majority allowing it to govern, with the ultranationalists of Vox. This far-right party, born in 2017 from a split with the PP, has since become the third political force in the country.
The clash of the two blocks
According to the latest polls, the presidency of the Spanish government will thus be played out with a handful of seats. Several times politically given for dead, Pedro Sánchez, 51, has been in power in Spain since 2018. He then overthrew the conservative Mariano Rajoy thanks to a motion of censure supported by the entire left and by Basque and Catalan parties. Since then, his government has passed a wide range of reforms legalizing euthanasia, rehabilitating the memory of the victims of Francoism or allowing people to change gender freely from the age of 16. This economist with an international profile has also increased Spain’s influence on the European scene. Accustomed to gambles, he hopes to falsify the polls which give him the loser of an election – in which some Spaniards have already voted by post.
It is the People’s Party which is given the favourite, but without an absolute majority. Put back in battle order for a year by its moderate leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, he promises in particular to reduce the tax burden thanks to a reform which includes the abolition of the tax on large fortunes, wants to solve the energy crisis by extending the life of nuclear power plants and thanks to hydrogen. Alberto Núñez Feijóo proposes above all to “abolish Sanchism”, that is to say “all these laws inspired by minorities and which undermine majorities”. In the first place the law on gender self-determination, but also assisted suicide or free abortion from the age of 16. On immigration, the Socialists want to increase the country’s reception capacities, unlike the PP, which calls for a system of selective immigration and a strengthening of border controls.
The far right kingmaker?
If they want to lead the country and the projections turn out to be correct, the conservatives should ally themselves with the far-right formation of Vox – climatosceptic, anti-feminist and xenophobic -, as is already the case in several regions and municipalities since the local elections. And probably give in to certain demands of Vox, which notably claims the vice-presidency and several ministries. If this coalition managed to be elected, the extreme right would come to power for the first time in 48 years and the death of Francisco Franco.
Its leader, Santiago Abascal, has managed to resurrect a marginal political fringe in Spain since the end of the dictatorship in 1975. It has found a certain echo after the failed attempt at secession from Catalonia in 2017. Beyond the fierce defense of the unity of Spain, its program rejects the existence of gender violence, criticizes “climate fanaticism” and is very openly anti-LGBT and anti-abortion. Ultranationalist and ultraconservative positions that bring him closer to his Hungarian ally Viktor Orban.
These legislative elections will be particularly scrutinized from Brussels, where there are also concerns about the strengthening of the far right in Spain – after Hungary, Sweden, Poland or Italy – and therefore of its potential entry into the European institutions, while the reform of the asylum system and the EU’s migration policy should be voted on by the European elections in 2024.