The French are again called to the polls in a week to elect their deputies. The challenge is simple: will Emmanuel Macron manage to obtain a majority after his re-election? But above all, will it be wide? In other words, will the President of the Republic have free rein to govern? The macronie holds her breath…
One week before the first round of the French legislative elections, Together! (presidential majority) and the Nupes (union of the left) led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon are neck and neck in the polls, ahead of the National Rally. So much for the general trend. More interesting are the projections of the new National Assembly: several studies show that the number of Macronist deputies could be lower than expected. The possibility that Emmanuel Macron does not obtain an absolute majority, set at 289 deputies, is now being considered by several institutes.
No state of grace
These projections have many limitations. It is difficult to predict the outcome of 577 constituencies. The head of state’s camp remains the favourite. But the hypothesis of an absence of a clear majority for Emmanuel Macron makes his supporters shudder. Especially since the campaign of the presidential camp is sluggish. In 2017, Emmanuel Macron had obtained a majority of 350 deputies in the National Assembly: the French wanted to give a chance to this president embodying novelty and youth. In 2022, it’s a completely different matter: the initial enthusiasm has faded. Emmanuel Macron was again elected against the far right. He does not benefit from any state of grace.
Sluggish campaign
This situation was predictable. What he was less of was this strange election day that we are witnessing, this lackluster campaign. While the left has managed to unite and create momentum, the presidential camp is struggling to exist. Emmanuel Macron certainly resurfaced this week, but he had almost disappeared from circulation, taking a month to give birth to a government without any real surprises. His choices resulted in no momentum. Worse, the appointment of the government weighed down the campaign of the majority candidates: with a new Minister of Solidarity – Damien Abad – weakened by accusations of rape and a Minister of the Interior – Gérald Darmanin – summoned to explain himself on the fiasco of the organization of the final of the Football Champions League at the Stade de France.
ric-rac majority
In this context, macronie fears having a ric-rac majority. In 2017, the party La République en Marche alone obtained an absolute majority. This year, the macronie comes in the form of a coalition formed by LREM, the Modem (the party of François Bayrou) and Horizons (the party of Édouard Philippe). All have sworn loyalty to the head of state, the government will have to negotiate more to pass its texts. Especially since the opposition – especially that of the left – will be much more numerous and rebound to challenge the policy of Emmanuel Macron.
The situation would be even harder in the absence of an absolute majority: this would mean that the government would have to make compromises and form alliances with deputies from the left or the right in order to pass the laws. A black scenario for a president who, for 5 years, never really cared about the National Assembly, even despised it in the eyes of the opposition.