It is quite possible to find early estimates of the results of this second round of the legislative elections before 8 p.m. These leaks have been occurring during every French election for many years.
The results of the second round of the 2024 legislative elections are fast approaching, and with them come a lot of leaks. Indeed, as with every election, some foreign French-speaking media outlets are quick to publish the first trends well in advance, before the official time of 8 p.m. As a reminder, French media outlets are required to wait strictly until 8 p.m. as stipulated by law, under penalty of a fine of up to 75,000 euros. Le Soir, La Libre Belgique, RTBF… This Sunday, these media outlets may publish initial estimates in the afternoon. Let’s remember, however, that this information may contain approximations or even fake news.
Leaks during the last presidential election
During the presidential election two years ago, several Belgian media outlets had published estimates and polls on the Internet. The “Poll Commission”, which governs the rules in France, had been very bothered. In particular, it had published a press release shortly before the vote in which it said it had received assurances from the 8 main French institutes (BVA, Elabe, Harris interactive, Kantar-TNS-Sofres, IFOP, Ipsos, Odoxa, OpinionWay) that none of them were behind these studies. It therefore described the polls published by media outlets that were nevertheless recognized as “rumors”. OpinionWay felt obliged to indicate on Twitter that it had not published “any data” on the vote.
The electoral code leaves no doubt as to the time of publication of the results, article L52-2 specifies: “No election result, partial or final, may be communicated to the public by any means whatsoever, in metropolitan France, before the closing of the last polling station on the metropolitan territory. The same applies in the overseas departments before the closing of the last polling station in each of the departments concerned”. However, while the polling stations close for the vast majority at 6 or 7 p.m., in large cities the opening hours are extended to 8 p.m. The monitoring of compliance with the timetables is such that no traditional media outlets risk defying the ban by publishing the results in advance on election nights.
French law prohibits publication before 8 p.m.
Why can’t the results be broadcast on French sites? The reason is simple: the law prohibits any broadcast of information on the score of candidates in ongoing elections, so as not to distort the vote. And in France, voting this Sunday does not close until exactly 8 p.m. However, the first results of the legislative elections will only be known well before 8 p.m.: polling institutes are taking readings in a few representative polling stations on French territory to establish the first estimates that will be given by the French media at 8 p.m.
These figures and estimates are confidential until H-hour, but with each election, there are leaks on social networks, particularly on Twitter with the hashtag #RadioLondres. Be careful with these messages, which are often coded: they may be rumors and false information, and if they are leaks of poll data, they remain unreliable before 8 p.m. It should also be noted that the Belgian and Swiss media are not subject to the French ban on broadcasting estimates for the 2024 legislative elections before 8 p.m.