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Much uncertainty remains, but for some, life has returned to normal in the area. Fishermen are seen here at sunset at Nahariya in Israel, near the border with Lebanon.
1 / 2Photo: Ariel Schalit/AP/TT
Despite many violations, despite the revolution in Syria – after a month and a half, the ceasefire in Lebanon stands.
– I think it is important to say that, on the whole, the ceasefire has held at a macro level, says Middle East expert Anders Persson.
But now uncertainty is increasing.
The truce following the autumn war between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah militia came into force on 27 November. The first phase was supposed to last two months, and involves, among other things, the Israeli military leaving southern Lebanon, in favor of forces from Lebanon and the UN mission Unifil.
In a first zone, on the Mediterranean Sea in the west, the deadline for the Israeli soldiers expires in a week, on January 17. US envoy Amos Hochstein has confirmed that they withdrew from, among other things, the coastal city of Naqoura. But the process has been shaky.
– On a macro level, I would say that the truce is holding, but on a micro level, there have been many violations from both sides, especially on the Israeli side, I would say, says Anders Persson, Israel-Palestine expert at Linnaeus University.
At the same time, the balance of power in the entire Middle East has been tipped by the power shift in Syria. It has cut off Hezbollah’s main supply route for weapons and other resources, the land route through Syria from Iran.
85-year-old leader
And in a week, the next epochal change will come, when Joe Biden will hand over to Donald Trump the leadership of Israel’s powerful ally the United States. That, in turn, could be decisive for Hezbollah’s most important partner Iran as well.
– We have a very unstable situation in Iran, where the leader is 85 years old. It is possible that Israel will attack Iran, with or without Trump’s help, says Persson.
– So in that way, Hezbollah’s whole world is in turmoil, so to speak. Whether that makes the situation more or less conflict-generating – hard to tell.
Will there be guerilla warfare?
One possible scenario abounding, and reported to have been proposed by the US, is to simply extend the current phase by a month. But time to agree on it is running out.
There are also sources that Israel considers that Hezbollah is not fulfilling its side of the deal – and that the Israeli military is therefore delaying its retreats.
– The question is what happens if the ceasefire expires and the Israeli army remains in a certain number of places, says Persson.
– Will Hezbollah fight them then? Will they start some type of guerilla warfare?
FACT Slow transition period
The conflict between Israel and the Shia militia Hezbollah is part of a larger schism between the Jewish state and several countries and movements in the Middle East, including the great power Iran.
After the outbreak of the Gaza War in 2023, the situation in southern Lebanon also escalated to open war in October last year. After a number of devastating weeks of bombings and attacks, a ceasefire agreement was reached at the end of November.
The first phase is a two-month transition period, which lasts until January 27. Israel’s military is to leave southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah to move all its heavier weapons north of the Litani River.
A committee led by the United States checks that the parties are doing what they are supposed to. If Lebanon and others do not eliminate urgent threats to Israel, there is a caveat that Israel has the right to act militarily.
Hundreds of thousands of evacuated civilians should also be able to return to their homes in northern Israel and southern Lebanon respectively.
So far, however, meeting the terms has been slow, and there is speculation as to whether the truce will break or be extended on January 27.
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