The children were playing soccer in Majdal Shams, a village in the annexed Golan Heights in northern Israel, when a missile fell on them on July 27. The toll: twelve dead and thirty wounded. “The deadliest attack against Israeli civilians since October 7,” the Israeli army responded. The Hebrew state immediately accused the Lebanese Hezbollah of being the author of the rocket fire, followed by the White House. But for the time being, the Shiite Islamist group denies any responsibility for this attack. The fact remains that given the escalation of tensions with Israel on the one hand, and the ongoing war in Gaza on the other, this deadly raid, followed by an Israeli strike against a Hezbollah commander on July 29 near Beirut, could well be the spark likely to open a new front with the armed wing of Iran, of which the Lebanese, already embroiled in a major economic crisis since 2019, would be the first victims.
Majdal Shams has two particularities. First, the village is home to many Syrians, several thousand of whom have obtained Israeli citizenship due to the political situation in Syria. But most are also Druze, a Muslim community that is ten centuries old and that can be found in Israel, Syria, but also in Lebanon, where they represent about 5.5% of the population. This is one of the reasons why Ayman*, a Lebanese university professor who lives in Choueifat (a predominantly Druze region of Lebanon), is so circumspect about the aim of this attack. “The Progressive Socialist Party, which represents the Druze in Lebanon, has not criticized Hezbollah, much less its stormy relationship with Israel. A sectarian war between the Shiites and the Druze would not serve anyone!” he exclaims.
In fact, according to a study by the Arab Barometer, which asked the Lebanese about Hezbollah’s involvement in regional politics, it is among the Druze that the increase in favorable opinions since 2022 has been the most significant (plus 10 points) – even if in total, only a third of those surveyed responded in this sense. For Ayman, the attack of July 27 is therefore incomprehensible. To the point that it could only be, according to him, a “mistake” in targeting…
“We are anesthetized”
“For many, if Israel went to war against Hezbollah, it wouldn’t change much compared to usual,” he explains. “Here, everyone has seen that Hezbollah has evacuated several military centers, that the Red Cross has been in a state of emergency since July 27, that flights to Lebanon have been disrupted… But the Lebanese are used to continuous military attacks since the civil war of 1975. We are a little anesthetized on this subject.”
As for imagining a Hezbollah alone at the helm, in the outbreak of a war, the professor does not hide his doubts about the Shiite group, which has “no independence”. “It receives its orders from Iran! Everything will therefore depend on Iranian policy in the region. But Hezbollah no longer wants to wage an open war. It knows full well that since October 7, many Lebanese no longer show any solidarity with it, because they consider that it is taking Lebanon hostage for the benefit of Iran.”
Since October 8, approximately 80,000 Israelis living along the border with Lebanon have left their home to go to Tel Aviv and other cities less exposed in the event of an attack. But in Lebanon too, more precisely in the Shiite municipalities in the south of the country, the situation has forced many inhabitants to move. This is the case of Ali*, a young farmer who had to flee the city of Bint-Jbeil, located 4 km from the border with Israel, to take refuge in Beirut. He lives from day to day. “We can’t predict the future, it’s very complicated. Everything depends on the reactions of Israel and Hezbollah. But everyone is afraid. More than 80,000 Lebanese have had to leave their communities. Hezbollah’s military bases are scattered among the houses. Any Israeli strike can hit civilians. But we can’t do anything. Since October 7, we have all become accustomed to fear. With the daily attacks between the two belligerents, we feel like we are living a war in episodes.”
The Specter of the Blaze
Back in Israel, in Haifa, where Jonathan El Khoury lives. He is of Lebanese Christian origin, responsible for communications at Diolpact, a civil association specializing in providing information on daily life in Israel to foreigners. He also thinks that Israel’s response after July 27 will be massive. His anger is palpable. “Israel is not interested in a war against Lebanon, but it is protecting itself against Hezbollah! In this situation, it is essential that the Lebanese be united against these terrorists.”
Indeed, the specter of an imminent war between Hezbollah and Israel is being considered by many observers of the Middle East. Starting with Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peacein the United States, who, on July 28, declared on CNN that “this war could potentially create a situation that we have never seen in this area: a major regional war, likely to draw in the Gulf and even lead to a direct confrontation between the United States and Iran.”
This is also one of Jonathan El Khoury’s fears: “in the event of a conflagration, it risks turning into a war between Iran, the Houthis in Yemen, Syria on one side, and Israel and the United States on the other.” What drives him crazy is summed up in one sentence: “Today, Hezbollah has more than 200,000 missiles. This is not normal. For the Israelis, what happened on October 7 cannot be repeated. We do not want war, but we are ready if we are attacked. We have the right to live in security, just like the Lebanese who suffer from Hezbollah’s decisions.”
And to conclude: “Druze or not, the Israelis will stand in solidarity with the victims. The Druze are a part of our society, many activists went to Majdal Shams to participate in the funeral. Following the massacre, Jews also held a shared prayer with the Druze. We cried on October 7, and we cried again, with the same pain, on July 27.”
* A writer and poet born in Damascus, Omar Youssef Souleimane took part in the demonstrations against the regime of Bashar al-Assad, but, hunted by the secret services, he had to flee Syria in 2012. A refugee in France, he published with Flammarion The Little Terrorist, The Last Syrian, A room in exile, and recently Being French.
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