As in the first round, the Belgian newspaper Le Soir delivers the first results of the second round of the 2022 presidential election in France. These partial results should be followed by result estimates in the early evening, well before 8 p.m. But is it really reliable?
Presidential results near you
[Mis à jour le 24 avril 2022 à 17h51] Results before 8 p.m. on the site of the reference media Le Soir? It is very likely yes. If the Belgian media does not confirm this, it indicates on its website that it has the possibility of publishing anticipated results. He is in fact already doing so this Sunday, April 24 in the afternoon, delivering results that cannot be verified, in this case detailed scores in several overseas territories: Guyana, Martinique but also the Guadeloupe. Linternaute.com cannot communicate them to you since like any French media, we do not have the right to broadcast results before 8 p.m.
Last April 10, Le Soir had published the results before almost everyone else, La Libre Belgique had distanced it by a few minutes. The Belgian newspaper had justified itself: “It is not a question for Le Soir of being the first at all costs, but of being relevant, taking into account the fact that the gap between the candidates could be tight and that the polling stations will close at 7 p.m. (or 8 p.m. in major cities). Le Soir will obviously be mobilized on the event, but cautious as required by journalistic rigor, “wrote the Belgian reference media.
Le Soir once again promises to go further by publishing this Sunday estimates on the outcome of the second round between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen before 8 p.m. At what time? “When the information will be cross-checked, reliable and serious, quite simply”, replies the Belgian newspaper on its website this Sunday. “It is not for Le Soir to be the first at all costs, but to be relevant taking into account the fact that the gap between the candidates could be tight and that the polling stations will close at 7 p.m. ( or 8 p.m. in major cities). Le Soir will obviously be mobilized on the event, but cautious as journalistic rigor requires.
Like other foreign media, the newspaper Le Soir is not obliged to respect French electoral law, which prohibits the publication of results before 8 p.m. In France, all the media are required to wait until the end of the ballot (8 p.m. therefore) to broadcast information on the results… but this restriction does not hold for foreign media. Given what is at stake: a potential for very high audiences – generated by the impatience of the French who want to have the results of the 2022 presidential election as soon as possible -, it is understandable that Le Soir is putting this type of online content before French news sites. The key is to have reliable elements so as not to distort the journalistic work expected for such a medium.
Were the results released before 8 p.m. in the first round reliable?
Le Soir, like La Libre Belgique or RTBF, had published results on the first round of the presidential election, based on data provided by French polling institutes. Le Soir had also given fairly spectacularly accurate information, at 6:38 p.m. very precisely, giving Emmanuel Macron between 27.6% and 29.7%, Marine Le Pen between 23.5% and 24.7%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon between 19.8% and 20.8%. Eric Zemmour being given between 6.5% and 7.1%. Scores very close to the consolidated results in the evening in France. This Sunday, April 24, Le Soir is once again covering the French presidential election, and will of course give the results for Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen at 8 p.m., but also before that time if the media has information considered to be reliable.
Two weeks ago, remember that Le Soir had also given other results of the presidential election, which turned out to be further from reality. “Macron would win between 24 and 25.2% of the vote, Marine Le Pen would be around 24%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the candidate of rebellious France, would come 3rd, with 19-20% of the vote”, wrote Le Evening, giving the incumbent president and the far-right candidate into a narrower gap. 30 minutes later, at 7:55 p.m., Le Soir published these figures: Emmanuel Macron between 25 and 31%, Marine Le Pen would be between 22.4% and 24.7%. And Le Soir then said to rely on “different polling institutes”.
Why don’t the French media have the right to broadcast these results?
Remember that French law is very clear on the publication of election results: it is strictly forbidden for a French media, but also for any person, journalist or not, to make public (via a media or an Internet page, a network social) an estimate of the result of a ballot before 8 p.m., the time at which the ballot closes. This law aims to preserve the proper conduct of the election. The leak of results can indeed change the behavior of citizens who have information that the first voters did not have. Any offender is liable to a fine of 75,000 euros.
At the beginning of April, the National Commission for the Control of the Electoral Campaign had warned the French to be cautious about the results of the presidential election revealed by the foreign media: “The Polling Commission obtained from the 8 main polling institutes (BVA, Elabe , Harris Interactive, Ifop, Ipsos, Kantar, Odoxa, OpinionWay) the assurance that none of them will carry out exit polls. It follows that any reference, on polling day, to such polls cannot be only the fruit of rumors or manipulations and therefore, that no credit should be granted to them”, she wrote in a press release.