The plan was almost perfect. When he launched his campaign for the presidency of the Republicans (LR) in the summer of 2022, Eric Ciotti found the martingale. The deputy of the Alpes-Maritimes poses as a liege of Laurent Wauquiez by means of a double promise. Farewell to the internal primary, provided for by the statutes of LR. The right-wing presidential candidate will now be chosen by party authorities, and subject to simple ratification by members. This suitor: the boss of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region, of course! Eric Ciotti even plans his coronation in 2023.
Win-win. The Niçois wins thanks to this commitment. Laurent Wauquiez is a quasi-official candidate. A script written too quickly? This stratagem has its first hitches. Forgotten, the promise of an appointment of the former minister of Nicolas Sarkozy from 2023. The man wants to remain in control of his calendar and not expose himself too early. He knows how difficult the Europeans of 2024 are going to be for his people. Better not to be the official leader of the right when the verdict of the polls will fall.
“It’s not a priority when you’re at 5%”
The reform of the statutes is falling behind schedule. Expected for June, it is now scheduled for this fall. Blame it on the psychodrama of pensions, which paralyzed the internal life of LR for months. And then, several executives have their foot on the brake pedal. “It’s not a priority when you’re at 5%,” Senate President Gérard Larcher told Eric Ciotti. The priority? The ideological refoundation of the right, not its incarnation. “To be passionate about this subject is objectively premature”, adds the n° 2 of LR François-Xavier Bellamy.
In the Wauquiez camp, we are more in a hurry. “Do we do it now and move on or wait for the home stretch to tear ourselves apart before designating a candidate?” asks a relative. Engaged in a phase of immersion with the French to build a political offer, Laurent Wauquiez does not wish to be encumbered with a competition which disperses the media light. A conclave suits him better. “A primary cultivates clans and then forces you to unite, he confides to L’Express. This leads to late choices, while a President of the Republic takes five years to build.”
The analysis is not isolated. On the right, the primary does not have good press. Few defend this symbol of modernity in the 2010s. From the 2016 financial year, we remember the deadly divisions. From the victory of Valérie Pécresse during that of 2021, a militant inter-self who has stunted the discourse of the right. The propulsive effect of the vote is considered “superficial”, a simple breath of fresh air with marginal political value.
“Wauquiez will see who his real friends are”
However, reservations rise on the method of designation “Bonapartist” prepared by the former deputy Guillaume Larrivé, responsible for preparing the new statutes: a vote of the political office of LR, followed by a simple validation by the members. “We need a democratic designation”, slips the boss of senators LR Bruno Retailleau, historical supporter of an open primary. The procedure envisaged assumes above all the existence of a natural candidacy, which imposes itself by the force of evidence. To be acclaimed, you have to be without competition. “I am convinced that at some point, a suitor will prevail,” says Eric Ciotti. A wishful thinking.
On the right, the polls giving Laurent Wauquiez between 5% and 7% of the presidential vote have not escaped anyone. Ambitions sharpen, the debate on a tie-breaking method resurfaces. “From the moment there is no natural candidate, […] you need a principle of selection”, judges the mayor of Cannes David Lisnard, follower of an open ballot. The boss of Hauts-de-France Xavier Bertrand likes to privately recall his good performance in the polls, when the deputy of Lot Aurélien Pradié makes his social music heard.
The change in LR’s status will be a test for Laurent Wauquiez. His personal case will be the background of an obscure legal modification. “He will see who his true friends are, notes an LR frame. This will be more difficult to implement than what Ciotti predicted.” A senator agrees: “We made a commitment to quickly designate Wauquiez as a candidate. We didn’t do it, it reopens the game.”
Democracy of opinion
Unless there is a huge surprise, this reform will be carried out. But it will not seal the debate on the identity of the LR candidate in 2027 or his mode of appointment. One does not impose oneself as champion of one’s camp thanks to a simple statutory evolution. “If there is no natural candidate, what will these statutes be worth?” notes an LR pillar. “This revision is erasable chalk,” Aurélien Pradié told a relative. It is only a first step in Laurent Wauquiez’s Elysian quest. “Laurent’s strategy is to say to himself: those who won had the support of their party, notes privately Eric Ciotti. It is necessary, but not sufficient. Above all, they had the support of the country. The reform of the statutes regulates the first parameter, but not necessarily the second.
In the era of democracy of opinion, the two parameters are intertwined. Laurent Wauquiez will have to impose himself on the people of the right so that his party rolls out the red carpet for him. “If you are not able to impose yourself in your camp, you have to do something else”, assumes the putative candidate. A relative confirms: “The competition will exist, the only question is how to decide it.”
The polls could be justices of the peace here. The hypothesis is all the more likely since Laurent Wauquiez does not have an army of support within LR. It appears to be a choice more from reason than from the heart. His intellectual power is recognized, but doubts remain about his ability to take the country on board. The loyalties of 2023 are fragile and remain at the mercy of the evolution of the curves of voting intentions. A faithful of the regional president has no illusions: “If Laurent is at 7% and another suitor at 15%, the political office will choose the one at 15%. Not many of us say that he is the natural candidate from the right. We will have to create momentum.” Internal texts will be of no use here.