In Turkey, just over two months before the legislative and presidential elections, this Friday, March 10 marks the official launch of the electoral campaign, with a challenge for the opposition: to put an end to 20 years of power for Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
After eleven years at the head of the government and then nine years at the head of the state, Recep Tayyip Erdogan must face this year a very strong opposition coalition, which is starting the campaign with optimism: a first poll indeed gives 14 points ahead of its candidate Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. A candidate designated only a few days ago, after long and difficult negotiations between the parties gathered within the Table of Six.
However, the outcome of the ballot is not decided. The outgoing president must face the virulent criticism of public opinion after the failures of the response to the February 6 earthquake. It must also and above all answer for a unbridled inflation, of a collapse of the currency, of a social crisis which have worn down its authority.
Erdogan retains assets
Not to mention that on May 14, the pro-Kurdish HDP could lend its support to the coalition of the Table of Six. Justice has released public aid to the HDP. The pro-Kurdish party, the third political force in the country, accused of being linked to the PKK the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, described as “terrorist” by Ankara and its Western allies, will therefore recover a little more than 27 million euros in funds that were to be allocated to it this year. Some analysts lend it a crucial role in the outcome of the election, but the party remains threatened with closure, it must be heard by justice in the days to come.
But Recep Tayyip Erdogan retains many assets – including corseted media and civil society, a certain aura that continues to appeal to part of the population and a international stature reinforced by the conflict in Ukraine.