LEGISLATIVE POLLS. What did the very last polls published before the beginning of the reserve period say? Will Emmanuel Macron have an absolute majority after the legislative elections? We take stock.
[Mis à jour le 17 juin 2022 à 23h59] Official end of the campaign! The second round of the legislative elections will be held on Sunday June 19 in mainland France, and from Saturday in the overseas territories. For the time being, the latest polls, published before the start of the reserve period which begins at midnight and will last until the announcement of the first results on Sunday at 8 p.m., remain cautious. If the Macron camp (Together alliance!) is given the lead in the second round of the 2022 legislative elections, it is however unlikely to obtain an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Projections of Ipsos Sopra Steria for France Televisionsone of the last studies, estimate that the presidential coalition could nevertheless retain a majority with 265 to 305 seats
According to the polls for the second round of these 2022 legislative elections, Nupes is also not on track to achieve its objective of obtaining a majority in the Assembly. But it could console itself by becoming the first opposition group, which would sign a strong comeback of the left at the Bourbon Palace. Projections are counting on 140 to 180 Nupe deputies elected this Sunday, June 19. Projections which corroborate the results of the Ipsos poll, according to which 53% of French people want Emmanuel Macron to obtain the majority, against 46% who hope to see Nupes win and Jean-Luc Mélenchon appointed Prime Minister.
The Republicans would be relegated to the rank of third force in the Assembly with all the same 60 to 80 elected, against a hundred today. Despite this minority, the right could play a pivotal role since the presidential majority could need it to bring certain projects to fruition. Finally, the National Rally would not wait for its objective, set at a hundred seats, but it would manage to form a group of several dozen deputies for the first time since 1986.
Another survey, signed this time by the institute Elabe for BFMTV and Express and also published in the final hours of the official campaign, bets on a similar result although it grants more seats to the left-wing coalition with a range of 150 to 200 elected deputies. A result that would be insufficient to win ahead of Ensemble! The presidential majority would remain the first group with 255 to 295 elected against 350 during Emmanuel Macron’s first five-year term. A hypothesis which, in the best of cases, leaves the absolute majority accessible to macronists, even if the chances are slim. Let us keep in mind all the same that the results of the polls are only a snapshot of the trends at a given moment and do not predict the results of the legislative elections.
The latest projections from the Ipsos Sopra Steria institute for France Télévisions, published on Friday June 17, estimate between 265 and 305 the number of winnable seats for Together! (LREM, MoDem, Horizon, Act). The Nupes would then obtain the largest number of deputies, with between 165 and 210 places at the Bourbon Palace. An honorable result but which would dampen the coalition’s hopes of being in the majority and imposing cohabitation on the head of state. Despite a sharp decline, Les Républicains would keep between 60 and 80 of their seats and would become the second opposition force whereas they were the first so far. Finally, the National Rally could finally have a parliamentary group of 20 to 40 deputies.
After the results of the first round of the legislative elections, the pollsters therefore agree that the candidates Together! could obtain the parliamentary majority on the evening of Sunday June 19. But none places the number of seats slider with certainty above the 289 level. With as many or more deputies, Emmanuel Macron secures an absolute majority, but with fewer elected representatives, the majority would only be relative governance of the country complicated.
What did the last poll of voting intentions say about the 2022 legislative elections?
The polls of voting intentions ceased in the interval between the two rounds of the legislative elections, the estimates in number of seats being more relevant. The latest survey from the Ifop institute for LCI, published before the first round this time, gave the Nupes (26.5%) just ahead of Together! (26%), when the RN collected 19% of the voting intentions, far ahead of LR (10%) and Reconquest (5.5%). A result similar to the very latest Harris Interactive and Toluna barometer for Challenges (June 8 to 10) and to the Ipsos-Sopra-Steria surveys for France Télévisions, Radio France and Le Monde, giving the two formations equal or almost, in front of the maximum RN 20%. The match between Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon was therefore announced and the pollsters made no mistake.
The various polls published in the last weeks before the election gave Together! and the Nupes at the top of the voting intentions, ahead of the National Rally, this trend in the polls having been maintained throughout almost the entire campaign. The movement led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the alliance formed around Emmanuel Macron have been credited with 25 to 28% of the votes in a pocket handkerchief in recent weeks, which is what the first round delivered as a balance.
Difficult to produce reliable polls for the legislative elections
Please note: the votes for the legislative elections are very different from those cast for the presidential election. Other components structure this vote: the weight of the parties established in the territories, the political personalities appreciated locally, the political rapprochements at the level of the constituencies, and the method of voting, majority in two rounds. All this makes the job of pollsters difficult. But if it is impossible to make precise projections, certain elements must be taken into account to measure the balance of power.
Of the 577 constituencies in mainland France and overseas (excluding the constituencies of French nationals living abroad), Emmanuel Macron came out on top, in the first round of the presidential election, in 256, Marine Le Pen in 206, Jean -Luc Mélenchon in 104, Valérie Pécresse in… none. But remember that in 2017, Marine Le Pen managed to lead the first round of the presidential election in 216 constituencies; the far-right party had only managed to elect 9 deputies.