MIDTERMS. This Tuesday, November 8, the midterms are organized in the United States. These elections must make it possible to elect a part of the national Parliament. Could the result already set the trend for the 2024 presidential election? What the polls say.
The essential
- In the United States, midterms (mid-term elections) take place Tuesday, November 8, 2022. These are legislative elections in which voters across the country must vote for their MP who will sit in the House of Representatives for the next two years. In some states, the Americans must, in addition, designate the senator who will represent them, but also elect the governors and local legislative assemblies.
- If the Democratic Party of President Joe Biden is now in the majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, the training of the head of state should lose control of the first entity according to the polls. For the second, nothing is yet played according to these same projections.
- The Republican Party, that of Donald Trump, should emerge stronger from these midterms. Even if the conservatives are neck and neck with the left, victory in the House of Representatives – which seems inevitable – would provide a real political counterweight. This election could serve as a launching pad towards the presidential election of 2024 for the ex-president, who no longer hides his ambitions to return to the White House.
- Follow the latest information on the midterm elections in the United States on Internet user.
What do the polls say about the midterms of 2022?
In the United States, these midterms are similar to a combination of legislative, senatorial, and even regional or departmental elections. It is therefore difficult to carry out polls on voting intentions. However, many surveys are carried out, making it possible to take the pulse of the country. Despite numerous polls across the country, a general question highlights the polarization of the population: “Do voters want Democrats or Republicans in Congress?” The curve below, produced from the latest surveys collected by the American site Fivethirtyeightthus shows that no majority really emerges.
Live
15:11 – What are the main issues of these elections?
According to the latest opinion poll published by ABC News and the washington post Sunday, November 6, 2022, the central questions of these midterms differ according to political affiliation. Thus for the Democrats (Biden’s party), that of abortion is central (81%), as is that of climate change (75%). Next come the economy (overall), inflation, crime and immigration. On the other hand, for the Republicans, the economy is the major issue for 93% of his voters, inflation (90%), crime (86%) and immigration (77%). On the other hand, the subject of abortion is only a priority for 47% of them, against 20% for climate change.
3:00 p.m. – Nearly 40 fewer elected officials for Joe Biden?
According to an analysis by ABC News, when the popularity rating of a president exceeds 50% at the time of the mid-term elections, the head of state still loses an average of 14 seats, House of Representatives and Senate combined, according to the data analyzed since 1946. When it is less than 50%, the defeat is heavier: 37 elected members less on average. With, on the eve of the midterms, a popularity rating of 42.4% according to RealClear Politics, defeat seems inevitable for Joe Biden. But how big will it be? In 2018, Donald Trump, whose popularity rating was similar at that time, lost 26 seats in the House of Representatives and 4 in the Senate.
14:37 – Republicans will “accept” the results
While the fear of a Republican challenge to the results looms over the midterms, and the memory of the January 6, 2021, Capitol assault is still fresh in people’s minds, the Republican Party said “want[oir] make sure the race is fair and transparent, so let the process unfold, and then we’ll accept the results,” party boss Ronna McDaniel said on CNN.
2:10 p.m. – The Midterms, a decisive vote
Hello everyone and welcome to Internet user. From today, follow with us live the latest information related to the midterms, the midterm elections organized in the United States on Tuesday November 8, 2022. This election, which allows voters to renew the entire House of Representatives (435 deputies) and a third of the Senate, is decisive. Indeed, if President Joe Biden now has a majority in both hemicycles, his minority would cause complications to pass his laws during the next two years before the presidential election, Parliament as a whole having to vote each text so that it is implemented. The Head of State could thus find himself in an immobility which would weaken him in view of his possible re-election.
The polls are particularly tight and the outcome uncertain as we approach these midterms. But Joe Biden and the Democrats have history against them. “The president lost the majority in the House of Representatives 36 times out of 40”, during the midterms, explained to Internet user Marie-Christine Bonzom, former French journalist for the BBC and Voice of America. Friday, November 4, Marin Fortin-Bouthot, researcher and coordinator of the Observatory on the United States of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in Montreal (Canada), told Internet user that “for the House of Representatives, there’s about an 85% chance the Republicans will win.” As for the Senate, “the race is tighter. It’s even extremely tight.” Below, the latest poll on the voting intentions of Americans for the midterms, House of Representatives and Senate combined:
What result to expect in the House of Representatives during the 2022 midterms?
The House of Representatives will be completely renewed on 8th November next. The 435 seats that form this assembly are all put into play. With a Democratic majority, President Biden’s party, the lower house of Parliament could switch to the Republicans. To have a majority, any party must have at least 218 deputies. According to the American site 270towinwhich compiles the predictions of six polling institutes (Sabato’s Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, FiveThirtyEight, Split Ticket), the Republicans could well regain control of the institution, which they lost in 2018.
Indications for reading the map: the dark colors (blue and red) correspond to the candidates’ almost certain victories in their constituencies. The brighter the color, the more uncertainty there is. The brown colored constituencies are those in which the uncertainty is the most total. Reading the bar therefore suggests that the Republicans seem in a good position to win.
What result to expect in the Senate during the 2022 midterms?
On the side of the Senate, it is a third of the hemicycle which is renewed, that is to say 35 seats. This is the main issue in these elections, the upper house having more weight in the United States. But there, the equation is more complex than in the House of Representatives. Today, the Senate has 51 elected Democrats and 50 Republicans. During these midterms, 22 of the 35 positions submitted to the vote of voters concern Republican senators. To be elected, each senator must convince an entire state, not just his constituency. With Democrats having slightly higher approval ratings, this could work in their favor. Could only because the games are far from done, as the map of the American site explains 270towinwhich also compiles the predictions of six polling institutes (Sabato’s Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, FiveThirtyEight, Split Ticket).
Card Reading Directions: As with the House of Representatives card, the brighter the color, the higher the certainty of victory. It should be noted that only the central figures should be taken into account. The indications “2” (in green), “34 no 2022 election” and “no 2022 election 29” correspond to the seats which are not up for grabs during this election.
What result can Joe Biden expect in the 2022 midterms?
If, during the summer, the popularity rating of Joe Biden had risen, it has, in recent weeks, stabilized or even diminished. It must be said that the social context in the United States is electric, marked by galloping inflation which worries society. However, the American president does not seem to make it his hobbyhorse, he who prefers to bet on the guarantee of the right to abortion, diminished since the decision of the Supreme Court this summer (read below). The tenant of the White House does not seem able to reverse the course of history which, during the mid-term elections, has always (or almost) been unfavorable to the president in office. The swing of the House of Representatives on the side of the opposition is almost systematic and seems, once again, inevitable in 2022. Given the projections made by the polling institutes, the American president can however hope to limit the damage and maintain a majority in the Senate. Nevertheless, he remains a particularly unpopular president and should emerge weakened from his vote by having to submit to cohabitation.
What result can Donald Trump envisage during these midterms 2022?
Donald Trump is not a candidate for the midterm elections. Neither to a post of deputy, nor of senator, not less of governor or local elected official. However, it is an understatement to say that the predecessor of Joe Biden is involved in the campaign of the Republicans, he who multiplies the appearances alongside the candidates of his political family, across the whole country. Indirectly, the billionaire plays big. By exposing himself so much, he already seems to want to take the pulse of an America that he would consider governing again (the next presidential election is in 2024). Displayed support of several aspirants to elective office, some of whom still claim not to recognize the election of Joe Biden in 2020, Donald Trump risks that these elections are akin to a vote against his person, through the candidates. At the risk of seeing its popularity rating fall and its legitimacy for 2024 with, but also with the hope of emerging invigorated from this call to the polls, through the victories of the Republicans, with a view to embarking on the path of reconquering the White House.