The far right “at the gates of power”: largely leading the first round of historic legislative elections on Sunday, the National Rally has asked the French to give it an absolute majority in the second round and hopes to govern for the first time since the Second World War.
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While the traditional “republican front” against the RN appears less systematic than in the past, the party of Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen is able to obtain a strong relative majority, or even an absolute majority next Sunday. But the scenario of a blocked National Assembly, without any possible majority alliances between the three blocs present, also remains a possibility.
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With 33.2-33.5% of the vote, the RN and its allies obtained their best score in the first round of a vote in the wake of the European elections, according to estimates by the Ipsos and Ifop institutes. They are ahead of the New Popular Front uniting the left, which obtained 28.1-28.5%, far ahead of Emmanuel Macron’s camp at 21-22.1%, during this vote marked by a sharp increase in participation. The Republicans (LR) who did not form an alliance with the RN are around 10%.
“ We need an absolute majority », Launched Marine Le Pen, announcing her own election as deputy in the first round in her stronghold of Hénin-Beaumont. According to the three-time presidential candidate, “ the macronist bloc ” East ” practically erased » after this first Sunday of early voting caused by the surprise dissolution of the Assembly.
“ Respectful ” but “ intransigent »
Smooth face embodying a de-demonized Le Penist party, Jordan Bardella, who aspires to enter Matignon at only 28 years old, has promised to be ” a Prime Minister of cohabitation, respectful of the Constitution and the function of the President of the Republic, but intransigent » on his government project.
This would be an unprecedented cohabitation between Emmanuel Macron, a pro-European president, and a government much more hostile to the European Union, which could cause sparks to fly over the prerogatives of the two heads of the executive, particularly in matters of diplomacy and defense.
” The far right is at the gates of power “, alerted Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, calling for “ prevent the National Rally from having an absolute majority ” Much will depend on withdrawals and voting instructions in each constituency. Before these crucial decisions, a record number of potential three-way contests are expected, potentially involving some 300 of the 577 seats in play.
Strategies for the second round are being refined
“ Faced with the National Rally, the time has come for a large, clearly Democratic and Republican gathering for the second round “, asserted Emmanuel Macron in a written statement sent to the media at 8:00 p.m. At the Élysée as with most of the tenors of his camp, this gathering seems likely to exclude the candidates of La France insoumise, or a certain number of them.
Read alsoLegislative elections in France: withdrawals or ambiguity, the parties give their instructions for the second round
Gabriel Attal himself remained imprecise, promising withdrawals and calling for ” vote for candidates who defend the Republic “One of his predecessors, Édouard Philippe, considered that “no voice” should ” to support the candidates of the National Rally, nor those of France Insoumise “. Some Macronist voices, including those of Minister Roland Lescure, however, rose to “ dam on the far right ” including, if necessary, by voting for an LFI candidate. Which augurs a case-by-case strategy in the Macronist ranks.
On the left, the call for a blockade against the RN is a consensus: after maintaining a certain vagueness, the leader of La France insoumise Jean-Luc Mélenchon announced that his candidates would withdraw if they finished third and the RN was in the lead. The leader of the Ecologists Marine Tondelier pleaded for the ” construction of a new republican front », despite its continued decline over the years. Around a hundred organizations, including associations and unions, also called to vote against the RN. LR, for its part, refused to give voting instructions.