Land of peace Sweden stares at NATO, Switzerland freezes bank accounts and Berlusconi ‘deeply disappointed’ in Putin – war has revolutionized Europe in just weeks

Europe has changed at an astonishing rate in just a few weeks.

The war has pushed defense budgets up, shattered relations with Russia and highlighted countries that warned Putin long ago.

This story is about change across Europe. They are commented on by an academician Timo Miettinen Director of the EU Program at the University of Helsinki and the Institute of Foreign Policy Juha Jokela.

Russia’s invasion will change foreign policy above all in the Nordic countries.

In Finland, NATO support has jumped from more than 20 per cent before the war to more than 60 per cent, and in Sweden from more than 30 per cent. almost 50 (you switch to another service). Finland and Sweden have sent weapons to Ukraine, among other aid – Sweden for the first time since World War II.

Denmark is also considering a change. In a referendum in June, the Danes will be able to decide whether the country joins the EU’s common foreign and security policy, where it has been sidelined.

Norway and Iceland, on the other hand, have not talked about joining the EU.

– Norway is on the EU line in sanctions and foreign policy, but otherwise seems to be satisfied with its current position, Jokela says.

Finland’s close relationship with Russia is falling apart. At the beginning of April, customs estimated that Finland’s trade with Russia was only 30 percent higher than before.

NOTE! War extends everywhere, far and wide. NATO country in Iceland 52 percent (switch to another service) citizens said in early March they feared the spread of the war or felt insecure.

The Baltic countries were the first in the EU to stop buying natural gas from Russia.

They intend to cope with Latvia’s gas storage facilities and Lithuania’s LNG terminal. In addition, Finland and Estonia plan to lease a joint LNG vessel, which would be a floating gas storage facility.

The importance of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in the EU is emphasized. They foresaw the crisis and raised the threat of Russia more closely than many other member states.

– This emphasizes the position of the Baltics, Jokela says.

The change in Germany is the largest since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.

Germany is increasing its defense budget by 100 billion euros and has allowed arms exports. Germany has been wary of heavy military equipment due to the long shame of the Nazi era, but now it must also take great responsibility for European defense.

The war has taken the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Germany, and I believe that Russia will remain a peaceful partner through cooperation. Now a painful secession from Russia and the Chancellor has begun Angela Merkelin post-season laundry.

– It is used to keep a stable time through Merkel. Now, however, dependence on Russia has become a shadow that puts the whole season in a new light, Miettinen says.

What position is the new Chancellor Olaf Scholz Having all this is still a mystery.

NOTE! There are war refugees everywhere, even in tiny Liechtenstein. It granted 45 asylum in 2016, the largest in the history of a state the size of Tuusula. Now the country has largely arrived over a hundred (you switch to another service) Ukrainian war refugees.

Britain showed leadership by sending thousands of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine weeks before the war began. The country’s role as NATO’s most active member in Europe has been strengthened.

Throughout the 21st century, London has been known as the center of Russian money and oligarchs. Now the party seems to be over. Britain is cleansing itself of the tentacles of Russian money – which are thought to have attracted it too much in the early 2000s.

The crisis has also shown that Britain no longer has a role as a bridge between the United States and Europe after Brexit.

– The US administration deals directly with both the EU and the UK. Britain has lost its traditional role, Jokela says.

Electoral France has traditionally been among the Russian insurgents and did not believe in an attack by Russia. Now it is loudest (you switch to another service) demanded that EU countries secede from Russian oil and gas.

The most interesting block of the four so-called Visegrad countries is Hungary. It has supported EU sanctions, even as the country’s prime minister Viktor Orbán is Putin ‘s best friend in the West and has blocked arms shipments through Hungary to Ukraine.

Orbán’s support for Russia is alienating Hungary from its neighbors and driving it into a constant brawl with the rest of the EU.

– There is some fear that Hungary will go its own way, whether it will start to hinder or slow down joint decision-making, Miettinen says.

The development of democracy in Poland, like in Hungary, has caused gray hair in the EU. However, since the Russian invasion, it has positioned itself firmly to the west.

As a major neighbor of Belarus, Poland is also a key location for NATO forces.

NOTE! The Czech Republic is the only EU country to have provided Ukraine with armor: old but modernized T-72 wagons. Slovakia has considered helping to repair Ukrainian military equipment.

The war could drive Serbia off the EU road.

Serbia is applying for EU membership, which is a few years away. But the newly re-elected president Aleksandar Vučić is Putin’s ally. The countries sympathize with each other, and Serbia is completely dependent on Russia for energy imports.

Serbia voted in favor of a resolution against Russia at the UN, but has not imposed sanctions on Russia despite EU demands. Now the country has to choose its side.

Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Slovenia, which are members of the EU, have not seen much change, but otherwise the crisis has exacerbated latent tensions in the Balkans. Ragged Bosnia was a concern even before the war.

NOTE! Albania, Kosovo and northern Macedonia have been most clearly (switch to another service) on the west line. It reaffirms Albania’s and northern Macedonia’s aspirations for EU membership and Kosovo’s aspirations for official membership.

The Mediterranean countries have seen the least major changes so far.

– Events in Ukraine are geographically further away. The proximity of Africa, on the other hand, means that Russia’s energy is easier to replace than, say, Germany, Miettinen says.

Prime Minister of Italy Mario Draghi has set out to decouple Italy from its dependence on Russia.

Domestically, contacts with Russia have either been terminated or not: ex-prime minister and media mogul Silvio Berlusconi Has said “deeply disappointed” (switch to another service) his ex-friend Putin, but the leader of the right-wing populist Lega Matteo Salvini has been silent.

NOTE! Wealthy Russians have been able to buy a new citizenship, or “golden passport,” in several European countries. In the south, Russians have been particularly attracted to Greece, Spain, Malta and Cyprus – many of which are now reported (switch to another service) terminate this practice or prepare to terminate it.

Although Europe is heavily equipped, perhaps the biggest shock has been mental.

“Europe believed in interdependence that the strong ties created by common trade create stability on both sides,” says the Academy researcher. Timo Miettinen From the University of Helsinki.

Suddenly, it was easy to decide that the EU could export arms to a country at war.

– Economic sanctions are still the biggest action, but the war has come so close that previous arms export considerations are no longer even remembered, says the EU Program Director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs Juha Jokela.

You can discuss the topic until Tuesday 19.4. until 11 p.m.

Also listen to the news podcast about the Swedish NATO debate:

18.4. 12:40 PM: Correction: Matteo Salvini is leader of the right-wing populist Lega party, not the Five Star Movement