Less early than the Belgian media during the first round of the presidential election, will Swiss sites and newspapers such as La Tribune de Genève or Le Temps publish anticipated results of the 2nd round of the presidential election this Sunday, April 24, 2022? It’s not sure…
Presidential results near you
[Mis à jour le 24 avril 2022 à 18h11] This Sunday, April 24, the French are again called to the polls to elect their president or their president of the Republic. And as a fortnight ago, it is expected that the Swiss and Belgian sites will publish estimates for the second round of the presidential election well before the same time in France, in other words at 8 p.m. In Switzerland, La Tribune de Genève, but also Le Temps and many other media devote substantial coverage to the presidential election, with “live” coverage of the slightest news of the day. And they can reveal there, sometimes well before 8 p.m., “first trends”, freed as they are from the French constraint which obliges the French media to respect a “reserve period” as long as the vote is in progress. It is necessary to distinguish between two methods used by the pollsters: the so-called “exit polls” polls and the estimates extrapolated from the first results.
The Tribune de Genève took part in the big unpacking two weeks ago, delivering information at the end of the afternoon in its live broadcast, on its website, as well as on Twitter. On his thread, we find in particular an “estimate” dated 7:45 p.m. where Emmanuel Macron is given largely in the lead, at 31.9% against 22.4% for Marine Le Pen and 20% for Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Two methods to estimate the results
The first is undoubtedly the most sulphurous method. The “exit polls” survey is based on declarations by voters at the exit of polling stations or on the Internet. Asked on the day of the vote about the choice they made in the voting booth, these voters, grouped together in representative samples, are supposed to give an estimate of the results. But based on the declarative, with all the biases that this may entail, this method has been abandoned by most pollsters today. In any case, this is what they say, while the Belgian and Swiss media still very often quote these famous “exit polls”.
The second method is considered much more reliable. It is even used by polling institutes now so that French television channels can reveal an estimate of the result of the presidential election from 8 p.m. on the air. The principle this time is radically different: from 7 p.m., small hands are active in the polling stations which have already closed their doors and begin to count the ballots. These investigators, present in several hundred of these offices deemed representative, send the result of all 100 ballots counted to the institute, which draws a projection using a powerful algorithm. This method, which is based on real bulletins, is today considered much more reliable than the first. The first estimates on the evening of April 10 thus gave Emmanuel Macron around 28% of the vote ahead of Marine Le Pen at 24% and Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 20%.
Two weeks ago, the Tribune de Genève posted a first “exit poll” online in the middle of the afternoon giving figures in Overseas France and estimates on the final duel. At the end of the day, she also abundantly relayed, in her coverage of the French election live, the sometimes eccentric estimates of her Belgian colleagues, in particular of Libre Belgique. Among them, an estimate was able to give Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen “neck to neck” and another placed the RN candidate in front of the outgoing president. Here are captures dating back to 7:06 p.m., 7:29 p.m. and 7:41 p.m. on the evening of the first round.
Estimates to look at with suspicion
It is therefore necessary to remain cautious in the face of the “polls” revealed without really being explained by the foreign press. It is often difficult to determine whether these figures were established from the first or the second method. In any case, they are by no means precise results. The Survey Commission, in France, was also moved by these leaks as the vagueness surrounding them a fortnight ago. On the day of the first round, she let it be known that she had contacted the Harris Institute in particular, “to ensure that the commitment made not to carry out an exit poll had been respected”.
Presidential estimates published by the Tribune de Genève
In its last live post on April 10, La Tribune de Genève explicitly mentioned the OpinionWay institute as the source of the estimates. An institute which has nevertheless undertaken, like the other 7 French pollsters, not to deliver figures to the media before 8 p.m. In 2017, the latter had already been pointed out as the source of leaks on the Belgian and Swiss media, but had strongly defended himself.
The newspaper Le Temps for its part was a little more cautious. If in his direct on the Internet he explained, video in support, to be able to “publish provisional figures before France”, the daily will remain on a relatively classic treatment of the election. Comments on the “confirmed push of the far right in France” or the results which “will not necessarily be those hoped for” at Valérie Pécresse will be published before 8 p.m., but no formal estimate will finally be delivered before the end of the ballot.
In this little game of lying poker that is played at each election, each Swiss media will therefore make its choice. But in any case, we will have to be careful this Sunday. In France, until 8 p.m., the media such as polling institutes are prohibited from delivering any trend on the result of the ballot. And it’s a safe bet that no “estimate” published before this time is really reliable.
Leaks on La Tribune de Genève during the previous presidential election
In recent years, the Belgian and Swiss media have made a specialty of exchanging and sharing the results of the French elections with the whole world in preview. During the first as during the second round of the previous presidential election, on April 23 and May 7, 2017, La Tribune de Genève took over the news from RTBF very early on, then continuing in its “live”, on its site, to leaf through the result of the election, under the nose and beard of the French media, kept silent by law.