Although isolated since its aggression in Ukrainian territory, Russia still has some allies in continental Europe. Within the European Union, Hungary and Slovakia stand out for their reluctance to sanction the Kremlin. In the Balkans, the Russian Federation can also count on the support of its historic ally, Serbia. But of all these countries, none is as committed as Belarus, because the support for the Lukashenko regime – in power since 1994 – extends even to the battlefield.
During the February 2022 offensive, part of the Russian troops that rushed to kyiv had Belarusian territory as their starting point. In December 2023, the two allies formalized the end of the definitive transfer of tactical nuclear weapons to this territory. Located on the northwestern border of kyiv, the country remains a constant threat to Ukraine. The latter establishes a large number of military means, necessary for the surveillance of this cumbersome neighbor.
And this is paying off, since on August 25, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicated that it had noticed that Belarus was “massing a significant number of soldiers” […] in the Gomel region, near the northern border of Ukraine, under the cover of maneuvers.” The ministry headed by Dmytro Kuleba warned Belarusian officials “not to make tragic mistakes under pressure from Moscow” and to “urge its forces” to withdraw to a distance greater than the firing capacity of Belarus’ arsenal.
Belarus, or Putin’s military playground
kyiv also claimed to have registered the presence of Wagner militia fighters, some of whom are being hosted by Belarus after their leader’s failed rebellion in June 2023. Ukraine has warned that military exercises in the border area pose a threat to “global security” due to its proximity to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, the site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster.
“We emphasize that Ukraine has never undertaken and will never undertake unfriendly actions against the Belarusian people,” the Foreign Ministry added. Severely oppressed following the 2020 presidential election, the Belarusian population – who have never shown unconditional support for their president – took to the streets to protest against the electoral sham. While he could have been overthrown, Lukashenko owed his salvation only to the intervention of Vladimir Putin. The dependence on the Belarusian president has never been greater, observers even speak of “vassalization”.
As for the statement by the Ukrainian ministry, it comes as Ukraine has launched thousands of its soldiers since August 6 to attack the Russian border region of Kursk, seizing several hundred square kilometers, and as Russia continues its advance in eastern Ukraine.