Settled discussions between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on negotiations to end the war, Ukraine seeks to weigh in discussions. Its margins of maneuvers are limited, but can help it.
The pressure rises for theUkraine. The country enters a decisive period, in which it could be relegated to the rank of spectators, after Donald Trump exchanged at length with Vladimir Putin about negotiations on a cease-fire in Ukraine on Wednesday, February 12. The President of the United States, who has already announced a drying up of American aid by the end of April, preferred to chat with Moscow only with kyiv and closed the door to several claims in Ukraine for the signing of A peace agreement. Donald Trump actually said that Ukraine will not be able to find its borders before 2014 and the annexation of Crimea and opposed kyiv to join NATO.
A cold shower for Volodymyr Zelensky which only had the discussions between Washington and Moscow until they took place and without having been consulted beforehand. A situation that “is not pleasant” he admitted. And for good reason: Ukraine which is not in a position of strength to start negotiations is still weakened by this discussion. The Ukrainian president said he was ready to return to some of these principles to achieve a peace agreement: to accept direct negotiations with Vladimir Putin and proceed to an exchange of territories between the Russian Oblast of Koursk controlled by Ukraine and Ukrainian territories annexed illegally by Russia. However, he refuses to conclude a peace agreement which would make him losing throughout the line.
The interests behind Europe’s support in kyiv
The fact remains that Ukraine has only few options to weigh in negotiations unless you rely on the support of Europe which also has every interest in taking up a place of choice in the discussions. Volodymyr Zelensky estimated that European countries must join “negotiations” alongside Washington and Moscow. A position supported in the process by Europe, and particularly by France. “A peace that is a capitulation is bad news for everyone,” alerted Emmanuel Macron to an interview with Financial Times Friday, February 14.
The President of the Republic also reminded his American counterpart that “only” Ukraine could “negotiate with Russia” on what is its sovereignty and its territorial integrity. Adding, however, that “it is to the international community, with a specific role for Europeans, to discuss security guarantees and more broadly the safety rules of the whole region.”. The Minister of the Armed Forces, Sébastien Lecornu, also wanted to ensure that France “is not put aside” in the discussions on Thursday, February 13 on Bfmtv.
European and Ukrainian levers to influence negotiations
If Europe says it wants to weigh, and even put pressure on Washington and Moscow for the negotiations for peace in Ukraine, what levers have it to activate? Sébastien Maillard, special advisor at the Jacques Delors Institute, cites three to the Parisian : the sanctions that affect the economy of Russia, the Russian assets frozen in the EU equivalent to 235 billion euros, and the deliveries of arms in Ukraine. To try to make Donald Trump flank, Europeans can also “refuse the funding that the Americans will ask them,” adds Cyrille Bret, associate researcher in the same institute. Not only to play with these means of pressure, Europe has every interest in going further and in proposing an alternative peace plan supported by its 27 members explains the geopolitical analyst Ulrich Bounat, always at Parisian : “If it remains in a wait -and -see position, Europe risks being marginalized”. Europe must propose a peace plan, but also ensure a key role in ceasefire management and post-war period.
Ukraine, if it is counting on European support, should not remain in a wait -and -see posture. The country can attempt to monetize greater support from the United States by putting access to the Ukrainian basement on the table which, according to Volodymyr Zelensky, is rich in rare land and strategic resources coveted by Donald Trump. “What counts for Donald Trump is to be able to claim a deal. He could very well be satisfied with a document granting him all the rights, even if the exploitation never materializes …”, analyzes Ulrich Bounat At Parisian. Ukraine could also promise to resort to the United States when the country’s reconstruction in the event of a ceasefire, to seduce the businessman that is Donald Trump.