A thousand men, tanks and armoured vehicles: these are, according to the Russian general staff, the forces deployed since Tuesday 6 August by Ukraine to penetrate the border region of Kursk. This Thursday, Russian forces are still facing a major incursion by Kiev into their territory, reaching, according to several analysts, the Russian city of Sudja, with 5,500 inhabitants, as well as localities located up to 25 kilometres beyond the border.
The Ukrainian presidency, which has remained very discreet since the start of the operations, said on Thursday, through its advisor Mykhailo Podoliak, that this surprise offensive was a consequence of Russian “aggression” in Ukraine for nearly two and a half years, without however clearly claiming responsibility from kyiv. For its part, the Russian Ministry of Defense assured that “the operation to destroy the Ukrainian army formations was continuing”, ensuring that they were preventing them from “penetrating deeply” into the region.
For General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN, this incursion differs from previous ones, and comes at a key moment, when Ukrainian forces are in difficulty in the Donetsk region.
L’Express: Do we have a clear vision of the scale of the Ukrainian operation in Russia?
Dominique Trinquand: Ukraine has launched an offensive with relatively large means, including armored vehicles. At first glance, it can be said that it has managed to make progress in this area. After a brutal Russian response, it is now necessary to see whether kyiv intends to continue sending reinforcements to the ground or not: this element will be decisive for the future.
Why is Ukraine launching such an incursion now? What is at stake?
The incursion comes at a time when Ukraine is struggling in the Donetsk region. Launching an offensive far from this territory is intended to attract Russian reserves that could be sent there and to create a new foothold, in order to ease the pressure in areas where the Ukrainian army is overwhelmed.
The other aim is to highlight the fact that the war is also present in Russia – which is a novelty, although there have been incursions into Russian territory in the past. But this time, the governor of the region acknowledged that Moscow was in difficulty because of this operation.
Finally, kyiv also wants, from a “media” and psychological point of view, to show that it is capable of winning points in this war.
Washington, which has so far opposed operations on Russian territory that could lead to escalation, has demanded explanations from its Ukrainian ally. Is this incursion being carried out without the consent of the United States?
The US’s support for Ukraine does not mean that it is piloting all of its operations. kyiv has its own strategy, although it is constrained by the restrictions imposed by the West on the use of the weapons it supplies.
The constant fear of the United States is a direct confrontation with Russia, so any operation on Russian soil naturally worries Washington. However, it should be emphasized that, so far, the incursions into Russia have been tactical and are not interpreted by Moscow as strategic attacks – the latter itself responds to them in a moderate manner.
Exactly, what could be the response from the Russian side?
There are two possible hypotheses. Either Russia decides to respond in a limited way, at a tactical level, so as not to have to assume to its population that its territory may be threatened – the attitude it seems to favor at present.
Or it could decide to retaliate more significantly, at a strategic level, arguing that Russian territory is under attack and that this is a major danger, in order to put pressure on the United States to bring its Ukrainian partners into line. In any case, I do not think that Ukraine will succeed in advancing deeper into Russian territory, on the other hand, if it succeeds in diverting Russian efforts in Donetsk, it will have at least won on that.