Since 2014, Russia’s goal has been to take over Ukraine, says the deputy director Kristi Raik from ICDS, i.e. Estonian International Defense Research Center.
At that time, Russia occupied Crimea and illegally annexed it to its territories. In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine with the aim of marching its troops into the capital, Kiev.
Western countries have supported Ukraine financially and militarily, among other things, so that Russia would not win the war or aim its aggression at other European countries.
However, Ukraine’s attempt to recapture Russian-occupied territories has been slow, and the commander of Ukraine’s armed forces recently admitted in an interview with the Economist that the war is at a “stalemate”.
The politicians of Western countries have a place to look in the mirror, according to the experts interviewed by .
– The main reason for the situation is that the West has fiddled with its weapon aid. The politics of the West have been contradictory and partly unsuccessful. Although a lot has been invested and especially the US support is significant, the arms aid has been limited all the time, says Raik.
The CEO of think tank Nordic West Office, an expert in international politics, agrees Risto EJ Penttilä.
– The West has given too little military support and too late. Ukraine had to launch a counterattack without an air force and without the best missile systems, says Penttilä.
While the West was chasing a decision with military aid, Russia had time to build defense fortresses that will be difficult, if not impossible, for Ukraine to break through.
Both the United States and the European Union have both supported Ukraine with tens of billions – the United States the most militarily. And now there are even bigger support packages to come.
The EU has promised a support package of around 50 billion euros for Ukraine. However, in the United States, the latest support package of more than 60 billion dollars is stuck in an internal political mess.
In particular, the continuation of US support has been considered after Hamas attacked Israel.
– I don’t know what is certain these days, except for one thing. Ukraine’s support will continue – not necessarily at that level, but Ukraine’s support will continue, Penttilä estimates.
Raik also believes that the support will continue despite everything.
– Russia has not changed its own goals, it continues waging war. If the war were to stop, it would reinforce Russia’s belief that it can somehow gain control of Ukraine. Making concessions is an incomprehensible idea for Ukraine.
The pressure for peace in Ukraine has increased
The US media NBC reported over the weekend that the countries supporting Ukraine had secretly discussed the possibilities of peace with Ukraine.
In Penttilä’s opinion, the pressure to achieve peace has increased.
– There are three reasons. The counterattack has not progressed, there is great uncertainty about the level of US support, and other crises require US attention, Penttilä lists, referring to the situation in the Middle East.
He says that he recently visited Washington and was left with the impression that the attack by Hamas “messed up all the patterns of the Americans.”
What can happen next?
Penttilä estimates that four different scenarios should be presented:
1. The war is escalating.
2. The war turns into a frozen conflict.
3. Ukraine makes a breakthrough and gets Crimea back. According to Penttilä, this would lead to a change of power in Russia.
4. The parties reach a truce.
Penttilä does not see an alternative in which the West would allow Ukraine to lose its independence. In his opinion, that would be too great a humiliation for the West. It would be a win for Russia.
According to Penttilä, the most likely thing is that the pressure for peace will increase, but at the same time the arms aid will continue and Ukraine will be prepared for both EU and NATO membership.
At some point, Russia could be ready for a truce for two reasons: Either its economy is falling so badly that the war cannot be continued. Another option is that China will be able to persuade Russia to do so.
Kristi Raik considers it likely that the war will be prolonged. In his opinion, the United States has not officially given any signs that the pressure for peace has increased. The main reason for this is that Russia has not been ready for negotiations.
– Russia’s intention is to continue the war and the country is aiming for next year’s US presidential elections, when power may change and US support for Ukraine may weaken or end completely.
Even a partial Russian victory would mean security risks for Europe
Neither expert believes in a Russian victory.
– Russia could achieve a partial victory if the Western countries’ support for Ukraine decreases substantially and Ukraine has to come to the conclusion that it could not continue the war, says Raik.
In Raik’s opinion, the situation would be very dangerous and the security risks in Europe “enormous”.
– Russia might make the interpretation that the West is so weak that Russia would be tempted to test NATO’s defense will as well.
According to Raik, it is difficult to say what is most likely to happen in the big picture.
– I don’t see a big victory for Russia, but you have to be prepared for even a partial victory. That would mean years of instability and very inflamed relations between Russia and the West, he says.
– The biggest question is how to guarantee Europe’s security, because trust in Russia would hardly have been restored. Europe and NATO would have to dam Russia very strongly, so that Russia would not imagine that it has opportunities for such aggressions again, Penttilä reflects.
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