According to the deputy director of the Estonian Defense Research Center, the media attention received by Der Spiegel magazine’s news creates an atmosphere of concern that has no real basis.
18:05•Updated 18:26
Deputy Director of the Estonian Defense Research Center Kristi Raikin in my opinion, the news from Der Spiegel about the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine is mere speculation and raises groundless concerns.
According to information from the German newspaper, the politicians of the Baltic countries have said that they and Poland would immediately send their own troops to Ukraine if Russia achieves a breakthrough because Ukraine has not been supported sufficiently.
Raik finds der Spiegel’s coverage confusing.
– Let’s talk about the comments in passing, which are clearly not intended for the public. It is not specified who made the comment and what the significance of this is.
According to Raik, at least he is not aware that preparations are being made to send troops.
– The principle is that no means are ruled out. If the situation changes, possible new needs to react will be assessed, but at least at this stage there are no preparations to send troops.
Raik states that the main thing is that Ukraine should receive more and as strong as possible arms aid.
There are some discussions about whether NATO soldiers could be considered for support missions, but there is nothing concrete about that either.
At no point have the Ukrainians asked for anything other than military aid, Raik points out.
“Creates an atmosphere of unfounded concern”
Raik says he completely agrees with the Finnish president by Alexander Stubb with the fact that talk about sending troops is speculation at this point.
Stubb commented on the issue on Monday during his visit to Tallinn.
– It’s unfortunate that the media is paying attention to this. It creates an atmosphere of doubt and concern that is not really justified. We should focus on what we are actually concretely doing for Ukraine, says Raik.
According to Raik, all possible means of reacting and helping Ukraine would be reconsidered if Russia made significant progress and the situation took a significant turn. If, for example, it seemed that Ukraine’s defense had once and for all been broken, we would be in a new situation.
– But that is not in sight at the moment.
Raik also considers it a speculation whether a NATO country could send troops to Ukraine without the approval of the military alliance. However, he believes that countries want to work with allies.
– I don’t see that the Baltic countries would at least go on their own, if only for the reason that the possible contribution would be so limited in any case that it wouldn’t have much importance in practice.
Russia and NATO avoid mutual war
Raik believes that Russia wants to avoid a war against NATO, as does Nato. In rhetoric, it is politically expedient to give Russia the impression that it is waging war against NATO.
– But in truth, Russia has always avoided a military confrontation against NATO.
Raik therefore does not consider it likely that Russia would attack a NATO country that is sending troops.
According to him, Article 5 related to NATO’s common defense would also not be activated if a single country sent troops to Ukraine and its soldiers died there. The article requires that a NATO country be attacked.
But since it is pure speculation at this point, Raik would hope that the media would not too easily start making news about whether a NATO country is sending troops to Ukraine.