It is an important week for Prime Minister Kristersson. He was in Brussels to honor the murdered Swedes in the terrorist attack in Brussels. On the same day, he celebrated one year on the prime minister’s throne. He then took the flight to Umeå to inaugurate the Moderates’ party meeting in 2023.
A year after Kristersson was in power, it may be time for some reflection. Will the cooperation between the Tidö parties last all the way to the next election? What challenges does Kristersson face?
A year ago there was a toast in champagne. Kristersson became prime minister and was able to fill his government with party friends who were allowed to become ministers. A dream for a politician and a dream for the old Muf chairman.
The Moderates’ decision to cooperate with the Sweden Democrats was successful. Kristersson’s thesis about cooperating where you think alike has demonstrably worked so far. The difficulties come when the Tidö parties also have to cooperate on things they think differently about.
Updated Time Agreement
For some time now, representatives of all parties within the constellation have been working on a new updated Tidö agreement. What was written down in a hurry one weekend at the castle in Tidö was too short and many formulations are far too sweeping. All parties think there are significantly more subject areas where there should be opportunities to find consensus. As is well known, the Tidö Agreement includes policies that primarily deal with criminal and migration policy and, of course, cooperation on the important budget.
On the same day that the Tidö agreement was presented, I asked both Kristersson and Åkesson how long they intend to cooperate. “At least two terms of office,” replied Kristersson. Åkesson was a little more tentative, but he saw the collaboration as long-term. Longer than one term. It was right after the election.
Already last spring, people started talking about a Tidöavtal 2.0. An agreement where more policy areas are to be included. For example, the Moderates want tax cuts, while the Sweden Democrats want to bring gender equality policy into the collaboration. But something has happened after the summer. Especially the last few weeks. Something is tying up.
I recently spoke with the Sweden Democrats’ press chief Oscar Cavalli-Björkman who said that an update of the Tidö Agreement will be presented shortly. But it will not be a Tidöavtal 2.0. Rather a 1.1
The numbers are an analogy from computer software updates. Simply put – what is presented before Christmas will not be groundbreaking. Rather minor adjustments. They are working on version 2.0, but it will be “further along”. When is unclear.
Jimmie Åkesson was recently interviewed in Nyhetsmorgon and then said that “I think we should focus on the Tidö agreement that we agreed on a year ago.”
“The Honeymoon Is Over”
Now a year has passed since the Tidö collaboration and the honeymoon is over. There have been conflicts, but there are several examples of when the parties were able to cooperate despite having deeply different opinions. One example is the revision of the Ordinance Act, which the government decided on to limit Koran burnings.
SD were deeply critical, but the issue was resolved and SD went into opposition on the individual issue. The parties have thus proven to be able to cooperate, even on issues on which they deeply disagree.
But even if the Tidö parties manage to stay together, there is one challenge they can hardly control – reality. The past year has been marred by various crises. Terrorist threats, war in Ukraine, NATO application, Koran burnings and the impending recession. But the most important thing for the Tidö parties is probably to reverse the trend of escalating gang crime.
Complicated problems
They won the election because the voters judged that they had the best policy on that issue. But the dilemma for the Tidö parties is that everything points to gang crime being a problem that will take many years to overcome. Regardless of which government is in power.
The problems are so complicated that many point to the fact that it will not have turned around even by the 2026 election. Changing laws takes time. They must take time, otherwise we risk haste. But it doesn’t help much when it explodes every other day. The Tidö parties want to double the number of prison places. But it takes many years to build new prisons.
If the Tidö parties can’t show voters concrete results on this issue, it almost doesn’t matter how much they compromise. It is about what Kristersson himself believes is the state’s most important issue. Citizens’ safety.