A meeting in Pennsylvania this Tuesday with her running mate, Tim Walz. Two speeches in Wisconsin and Michigan this Wednesday. Then trips to Georgia, Arizona and Nevada by the end of the week. Kamala Harris has a clear objective this week: to convince voters in the key states of this American presidential election, the famous “swing states”. The Democratic candidate and her potential future vice-president are also closely followed by Donald Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, who is traveling to the same states this week.
Every four years, the American electoral system winner takes all – the camp that comes out on top in a state wins all of the electors in that state – reminds us of the same thing: the American presidential election is actually played out in only a handful of regions. While some states are almost certainly won by one of the two camps, such as California for the Democrats or Utah for the Republicans, the whole point of this election lies in those where the level of support is almost equivalent between the two blocs, and which can therefore swing from one side to the other.
The vast majority of American electoral experts thus identify seven key states for this 2024 election: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. All these regions were won by less than 3% difference between the two camps in 2020, and should also still be decided by a handful of votes this year. The Express takes stock of what makes these States specific and important, which take up the majority of the two candidates’ time.
In the “Rust Belt”, reindustrialization and inflation
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. These three states in the American Northeast share one thing in common: symbols of Donald Trump’s large victory in 2016, they all narrowly swung back into the Democratic camp in 2020, and were decisive in Joe Biden’s short success. Once again, these three states in the American “Midwest” will be absolutely crucial in this 2024 campaign for the presidency.
They are part of what is often called the “Rust Belt”, the historic industrial heartland of the United States, impoverished by decades of deindustrialization and impoverishment. And while Joe Biden has reinjected hundreds of billions of dollars during his term to revive the region’s economy, other economic problems, including very high inflation, have also hit the population hard.
It is obviously no coincidence that Donald Trump, like Kamala Harris, chose a running mate from this American “Midwest”. For the former, JD Vance, senator from Ohio, is supposed to embody the relay of a rural, white America, abandoned by the government in Washington. For the latter, Tim Walz, governor of Minnesota, must precisely bring a less urban touch and closer to the concerns of the working class.
But these three states also respond to their own dynamics. Michigan was notably one of the major poles of the protest against the war in Gaza and Joe Biden’s support for Israel. Thus, during the Democratic primaries in February, more than 100,000 voters chose the “uncommitted” option on their ballot, the equivalent of a blank vote, in order to show their opposition and anger at the White House’s policy in the Middle East. Kamala Harris’s intended firmer voice towards Benjamin Netanyahu could change the situation. Even if the Democratic candidate was whistled and heckled by pro-Gaza demonstrators this week during her speech in Detroit, the largest city in the region.
Wisconsin, historically a Democratic land, could also fall into the Republican camp, as in 2016. Donald Trump understood this well, stating that “if we win Wisconsin, we will win everything else”. It was in Milwaukee, the largest city in the state, that the Republican convention was held to formalize Donald Trump’s candidacy. And it was also there that Kamala Harris held her first major campaign rally.
Pennsylvania, finally, is one of the most important states to win, given the electoral weight it represents. Enough to mobilize the candidates physically – it is in this region that Donald Trump narrowly escaped death during the assassination attempt against him -, but also financially. According to the American media Axiosnearly $211 million in advertising will have been spent by both camps in this region alone, $109 million for the Democrats, $102 million for the Republicans. If Josh Shapiro, the popular Democratic governor of the region, has long been tipped to become Kamala Harris’ running mate, it was also with a view to tipping the state to the blue side. One thing is certain: the candidate who wins Pennsylvania on November 5 will have taken a very important step towards the White House.
In the “Sun Belt”, the migration issue at the center of the game
It is not just the north of the country that will be decisive for the outcome of the November 5 election. Several states in the “Sun Belt”, the southern strip of the country, will also likely be decided by a handful of votes.
This is particularly the case in Arizona: in 2020, this state had swung Democratic for the first time since 1996, with a gap of only 10,000 votes between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The polls are once again extremely tight between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, for this state on the border with Mexico where debates on immigration issues are omnipresent.
Nevada, on the northwestern border with Arizona, is also expected to be a pivotal state in the November election. With more than 30% of the region’s population being Hispanic, the issue of migration could be less important than economic issues. One example illustrates the difficulties faced by the population: according to figures from the American media Bloombergwhile the average Nevada household spent an average of 19% of their monthly budget on mortgage payments, that figure has jumped to 36% by 2023. This is bound to raise concerns, which Kamala Harris will need to address if she hopes to win over the region’s electorate.
Georgia was one of the big surprises of the 2020 presidential election. Having swung to the Republican camp in eight of the last nine presidential elections, Joe Biden won by just over 0.2% four years ago, marking one of the turning points of the election. A success explained by some by the very high proportion of African-Americans in the region, who account for nearly 33% of the population; an electorate on which Kamala Harris is counting to rely to turn the region blue again. The polls are currently still in favor of Donald Trump, but his lead has melted since Joe Biden withdrew.
Finally, North Carolina could be the last key state to swing to win the election on July 5. Won by less than 75,000 votes by Donald Trump in 2020, the former American president is still leading in the polls. But there too, his lead has been melting since Kamala Harris’ candidacy, in a state where independent voters – not affiliated with one of the two hegemonic parties – represent nearly 37% of the electorate. According to the American magazine TimeKamala Harris has thus planned to double her campaign force in this state, as in Arizona. A sign that her camp believes in her chances of victory in this state which has only swung Democratic once in the last 44 years.