Kamala Harris, her assets to beat Donald Trump – L’Express

Will the second assassination attempt against Donald Trump, on a golf course on Sunday, break the Harris momentum? Launched with great fanfare after Joe Biden’s withdrawal at the end of July, the Democratic campaign seemed unstoppable until now. In less than two months, Kamala Harris has indeed astonished everyone. In no time, she has unified the Democratic machine, galvanized its activists, chosen a running mate who “creates buzz”, set the Party convention in Chicago alight and, last but not leastcriticized Donald Trump during a televised debate.

After the Republican claimed that “migrants were eating the dogs, cats and pets of the people of Springfield” (an Ohio town that has received a massive influx of Haitians), it was he who seemed to be devoured alive. For now, the two candidates are neck and neck and the outcome of the election is terribly uncertain. But contrary to what many thought, the current vice president has many assets to win on November 5.

Tim Walz, a running mate who appeals to “blue collars”

With his round face and his debonair grandfather look, he will be one of these great assets during the vote of next November 5. A month after his designation as running mate by the Democratic candidate, the entry into the campaign of Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, is close to flawless. According to a recent poll USA Today and Suffolk University published in early September, he would be significantly more popular than his Republican counterpart, JD Vance. While the Democrat garners 48% of favorable opinions, Trump’s running mate only attracts the support of 36% of voters.

At 60, the man who will become the next vice president if Harris wins, does not have the profile of a Washington bigwig. After starting his career in the National Guard before becoming a high school geography teacher, Tim Walz only entered the political arena late in life. A former American football coach and a self-proclaimed hunter, he enjoys cultivating a popular image that is increasingly rare in the Democratic camp. “He is truly the typical American family man,” says US historian Françoise Coste. “His profile helps to defuse this ‘woke’ criticism that Republicans constantly make of Democrats.” A major asset for Kamala Harris, originally from California and popular with urban voters and a graduate of both the West Coast and the East Coast.

Democratic strategists know that to win in November, they will have to broaden their base. “Tim Walz enjoys the same credibility as Joe Biden among white working-class groups,” emphasizes Charles Kupchan, a professor at Georgetown University and former adviser to Barack Obama. “Through her nomination, Kamala Harris is seeking to reach independent and moderate white voters in the Midwest.” The latter will be crucial in rebuilding the “blue wall” (states traditionally won by Democrats since the 1990s) in this region (north-central), which includes many key states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

At the same time, his record as governor has the advantage of providing assurances to the party’s left wing, which has become increasingly critical over the Biden years. During his tenure, Tim Walz—who served 12 years in Congress before becoming governor of Minnesota in 2019—legalized marijuana use, strengthened gun control and pledged to make his state a sanctuary for women seeking abortions.

Until now little known to the general public, this Nebraska native has recently gained notoriety after a series of well-aimed attacks against Donald Trump and his entourage, whom he presented as “weird guys”. A term taken up in chorus by the Democratic camp in the media and on social networks. No doubt he will try to take advantage of this talent for the punchline during his televised debate against JD Vance, on October 1st.

Republicans who want to block Trump

“In our nation’s 248-year history, there has never been a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump.” Those solemn words might have sounded like they came from a Democratic official. But they were not: they came from a Republican. And not just any Republican: Dick Cheney, former vice president under George W. Bush and secretary of defense under Bush Sr., who announced his support for Kamala Harris on September 6.

Like him, and like his daughter Liz – a former representative from Wyoming and a staunch conservative – part of the Grand Old Party has taken up the cause of the Democratic candidate to block Donald Trump in the race for the White House. “The assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, was a tipping point,” recalls Françoise Coste, author of Reagan (Perrin) and a Republican Party specialist. For them, the main issue running through American politics today is no longer the left-right divide, but rather being for or against democracy.”

In late August, a group of more than 200 Republicans—including former aides to former President Bush, senators, governors, and others—announced their intention to vote for the vice president in an open letter. Grouped under the banner of “Republicans for Harris,” some even spoke at the Democratic Convention in late August. For one of them, Adam Kinzinger, a former representative from Illinois, there is no doubt: Ronald Reagan himself would have supported Harris…

It remains to be seen whether their support will carry weight in the November 5 election. “It probably won’t be enough to broaden Kamala Harris’s electoral base, but it could still help her consolidate the vote of some independent voters,” says Julian Zelizer, a professor at Princeton University. But for the Democratic candidate, every vote is good to take.

The Democratic Party’s “winning machine”

More than ever, Kamala Harris can also count on “the machine.” The expression dates back to the 19th century and refers to the well-oiled, hyper-structured and perfectly disciplined organization of the Democratic Party founded in 1848. Historically, the most famous “machine” is that of the legendary Chicago Mayor Richard J. Daley (1955-1976), who made Democratic law reign over the great metropolis on Lake Michigan for more than two decades – including by greasing the palms of the unions.

And if, in 2016, the Democratic system, seized up due to an internal movement of hostility to Hillary Clinton, did not prevent the election of Donald Trump, the opposite is happening today: twenty-four hours after the announcement of Joe Biden’s withdrawal, the party was already in battle order. “This speed is impressive to see, recognizes Célia Belin, author of Democrats in America (Fayard, 2020). Overnight, everyone aligned as one behind Harris: the party, of course, called the Democratic National Committee (DNC), but also elected Democratic officials, education and automobile unions, activists, the mainstream media, “celebrities” like George Clooney, intellectuals like Ezra Klein [NDLR : éditorialiste au New York Times]not to mention the networks of Obama and Nancy Pelosi.” Even troublemakers Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, aka AOC, and Bernie Sanders have lined up behind the candidate without hesitation.

According to Célia Belin, who heads the Paris office of the think-tank European Council on Foreign Relations, two models are opposed: “The Democratic Party is a disciplined collective while the Republican Party has become the thing of a single man, Donald Trump.” Who must not know the Latin saying Go alone – “Woe to him who goes alone.”

Taylor Swift, the secret weapon to seduce young people

Just minutes after the end of the only Trump-Harris debate, singer Taylor Swift posted a potentially historic message. “I will be voting for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz for president because they have decades of advocacy for the issues I care about most: LGBTQ+ rights, IVF rights, and the right to [fécondation in vitro]the right of women to decide over their own bodies,” she wrote on Instagram. Cunning and careful not to alienate part of her audience, the pop star nevertheless refrains from giving voting instructions but calls on “swifties” (as her largely female fan base calls itself) to “do their own research on each candidate’s positions.” If they do, they’ll quickly discover that Trump is a tad less feminist than Harris…

Within twenty-four hours of this “story,” the site’s traffic Vote.govwhere you can register to vote, is exploding: 406,000 visitors have clicked on the link provided by Taylor Swift, when there are usually 30,000. It must be said that her Instagram account has a total of… 284 million followers! In 2018, the singer already supported a Democratic candidate in Tennessee against a Republican with homophobic remarks. In 2020, she declared herself for Biden. And in 2022, she criticized the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn abortion rights.

But what influence can Taylor Swift really have? In an electoral race where Trump and Harris are neck and neck, and where 5% of potential voters say they are still undecided, every vote counts, especially those of first-time voters aged 18 to 23. This category of the electorate, which is also the age group of the singer’s fans, votes Democrat in a proportion of 2 out of 3. Ensuring that they do not abstain and go to the polls is therefore essential for Harris. In 2016, in fact, Biden’s victory was decided by a few thousand votes in a handful of key states. Could Taylor Swift be Kamala Harris’ secret weapon?