Charles Kupchan has worked closely with Joe Biden and knows the Democratic camp from the inside. Special assistant to President Barack Obama and director of European affairs at the National Security Council from 2014 to 2017, he also advised Bill Clinton. Now a professor of international affairs at the prestigious Georgetown University in Washington, he shares with L’Express his relief at the announcement of Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race. “The Democrats made a new start a few hours ago.” Interview.
L’Express: What is your first reaction after the announcement of Joe Biden’s withdrawal?
Charles Kupchan : I feel a mixture of sadness and relief. Sadness, because I like Joe Biden very much, I worked very closely with him, he is a true public servant and a very respectable human being. This decision was not an easy one to make. Relief, because I think he had no choice. He had to withdraw because of the tidal wave of uncertainty surrounding his candidacy. Day after day, hour after hour, prominent Democrats were calling for an end to this campaign, major donors to the party as well. The situation was simply untenable. And the polls showed that the gap was widening, that Biden was falling behind Trump in the “swing states.” [NDLR : États où le vote est indécis et peut donc changer de camp].
So Joe Biden had no other option. It took him a while to admit it, but he made the right decision. Apparently, he made the decision at 1:45 p.m. on Sunday, July 21. Many people knew it was coming, but no one knew when, including those close to him.
Biden supported her vice president Kamala Harris to take over the campaign torch. How is she viewed within the Democratic Party?
I think Biden made the right decision in endorsing her. It’s true that she failed to emerge as the party’s star as vice president. She was overshadowed by Biden, and opinions about her are mixed among Democratic voters and party powerbrokers. But she is the natural heir. The party is ideologically divided. If the Democratic National Convention (August 19-21, 2024, to nominate the presidential candidate) turns into an open convention, with multiple candidates vying for a majority of delegates, it could be very damaging to the party. Democrats would be fighting each other, progressives against centrists. Meanwhile, Donald Trump and his running mate JD Vance would be crisscrossing the country, 100% campaigning.
For strategic reasons, it was therefore important to pass the torch to Kamala Harris. I expect the party to support her, perhaps even by holding a pre-vote before the convention. Kamala Harris could then choose a running mate, who would likely be the governor of a swing state. She and her running mate would then campaign full steam ahead. Time is running out, with less than four months left until the election. Democrats cannot afford to spend them waging war within the party.
Who could be Kamala Harris’ running mate?
I think Donald Trump’s running mate choice leaves an opening for Democrats. By nominating J.D. Vance, Trump is “doubling down” on his base of voters. Strategically, he probably would have been better off choosing someone more centrist or moderate. I suspect he’s trying to appeal to the disaffected working class in the deindustrialized heartland. But you can’t win elections on that electorate alone. To some extent, he’s left the independent voter, the moderate Republican, the moderate woman living in the suburbs of a swing state, open to a Democratic vote.
Kamala Harris, who is more centrist than leftist, should pick someone who will help her secure a major swing state, in this case a governor from one of those states. There are several possible options: Pennsylvania (Josh Shapiro); Michigan (Gretchen Whitmer); Illinois (JB Pritzker); North Carolina (Roy Cooper); Kentucky (Andy Beshear). I would be surprised if one of them didn’t end up at her side.
As you said, Kamala Harris has remained in the shadows during Biden’s term. However, questions about the president’s health were already being asked in 2020. Shouldn’t she have been put more at the forefront?
Biden can be criticized, but Obama can also be criticized, for not doing more to support the emergence of a new generation. And even though Obama is younger than Biden, there hasn’t really been an effort to identify the next leadership of the Democratic Party. That’s part of why things are so uncertain right now. But I understand that Kamala Harris would have easy access to the money raised for Joe Biden’s campaign, which is very important. She has vice presidential experience. She’s a woman, a person of color. I think she would do well as a candidate.
She is not as comfortable on the campaign trail as Joe Biden, that is certainly her vulnerability. Biden was very good on that terrain. He is an ordinary man, you wanted to sit next to him at McDonald’s and have a chat. Kamala Harris is a little less warm. She needs to make herself more accessible, more authentic to the American voter. If I were advising the campaign, I would say that this is where she can make the most progress.
Beyond the Democratic Party, does Kamala Harris seem to you to be the best candidate to face Donald Trump, in a deeply polarized America, particularly on issues of gender and race?
Let me put it this way: There is no other person that comes to mind as a better option. I think her running mate will be important. She would probably do better to pick a white man to reassure more traditional voters that this is not another leftward push by the Democratic Party. That said, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer is an extraordinarily attractive candidate and she would be a great complement to Kamala Harris, she is very strong, she has been a centrist Democrat in a divided state.
So Kamala Harris will face a difficult choice: Do I choose someone with Gretchen Whitmer’s qualities, or do I play it safe and choose a white man from a swing state? There are arguments for both alternatives.
How do you assess the Democrats’ chances in the presidential race?
I will sleep much better in the coming nights! (laughs) I was very worried since the Biden-Trump debate, but the Democrats have made a fresh start. I am optimistic that the Democrats will come out of this stronger. Whoever is nominated, and it will probably be Kamala Harris, she will be running against a convicted felon who tried to overturn the 2020 election. That is no small feat.
She is a very capable politician, I think she will run a good campaign. If you and I had talked on Saturday (the day before Biden announced), I would have been willing to bet that Trump would be the next president. Today, I would not make that prediction.
Joe Biden has six more months to serve as President of the United States. Republicans are already calling for him to resign. Can he continue in office?
Joe Biden has demonstrated, at various stages of the campaign and in his speeches since the debate, that he is in good shape… at least most of the time. I don’t think people are worried about his ability to function well for the remainder of his presidency. Furthermore, he has a great team that can, if necessary, fill in for him in the event of a gap—if the president needs to undergo a medical procedure, for example. Biden will begin to put his energy into the new ticket that emerges and will engage in the campaign with Barack Obama and other Democratic leaders to put his side in the best possible position.
When he arrived at the White House in 2020, Joe Biden promised to be a unifying president, after Trump’s term. Yet America has never seemed so polarized…
Joe Biden has bipartisanship in his DNA. He has made every effort to reach across divides, and in some cases, he has succeeded. He has managed to pass major legislation on the coronavirus relief plan, on infrastructure investment, on the IRA [NDLR : Inflation Reduction Act, une loi sur la réduction de l’inflation promulguée en août 2022]. In a country as polarized as the United States, these are significant achievements. Moreover, Biden was able, at least until late last year, to maintain bipartisan support for Ukraine. Ukraine is still standing, at least at 81%. [NDLR : 19 % de son territoire restant occupé]which is a real feat against an aggressor the size of Russia.
But I also think Biden had a much bigger vision, he wanted to go further in domestic policy, but his efforts were stopped short. He wanted $3 billion for Build Back Better. [NDLR : un cadre législatif qu’il a proposé au début de son mandat pour des grands investissements dans des programmes sociaux et environnementaux et dans des infrastructures] ; he wanted free “community colleges” [NDLR : des établissements qui proposent une formation postbac en deux ans] ; he wanted to boost aid for child care and elder care. Unfortunately, he couldn’t get these measures passed through Congress because he didn’t have the votes to do so.
I think the heart of the problem that the United States faces today is that many American workers are struggling to make ends meet. Until we solve that problem, we will remain a polarized country. And I would say the same thing about you, France, but I would say the same thing about Germany or Italy. What you are experiencing is not so different.
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