As we left CNN’s studios in Atlanta on the evening of June 27, the Democratic campaign was on the verge of implosion. After Joe Biden’s disastrous debate, calls for the octogenarian candidate to withdraw were increasing, as fears grew that Donald Trump would continue his inexorable path to the White House. Barely a month later, the upheaval in the American campaign was on a par with the concerns raised at the time. A little over a week after Joe Biden’s withdrawal, the momentum surrounding Kamala Harris’s candidacy at short notice gave the Democratic campaign an almost unexpected breath of fresh air.
Well helped by the support of all the party’s heavyweights, including that of former President Barack Obama, the vice-president’s campaign has already gotten into gear. “It’s impressive to see how quickly the question of an open primary to replace Biden was swept aside,” points out Françoise Coste, author of Reagan (Perrin, 2018) and a historian specializing in the United States. In two or three days, the debate was no longer about whether she would be a candidate, but about who her vice-president would be.”
Enough to revive a Democratic campaign that had been in limbo for months. Just a week after taking over, Harris’ teams announced that they had collected $200 million in donations (in addition to the kitty already put together by Biden). At the same time, the number of volunteers ready to get involved has exploded with 170,000 additional registrations. “Everything has changed in the last week for the Democrats,” summarizes Jacob Heilbrunn, editor-in-chief of the American magazine The National Interest. Republicans are beginning to show signs of disunity and do not know how to proceed.”
Reversal of electoral dynamics
Galvanized by Trump’s success in the first debate, then by the billionaire’s reaction after the failed assassination attempt against him on July 13, the Republican camp is now watching, stunned, a spectacular shift in the campaign. “The political game was extremely favorable to Donald Trump in recent weeks,” recalls Romain Huret, historian of the United States and president of the School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences (EHESS). But Kamala Harris’ candidacy has allowed for a very strong reversal of the electoral dynamic.” And for the Democrats, to finally regain control.
According to an ABC News/Ipsos poll released on July 28, the vice president’s approval rating has climbed to 42%, up from 35% a week earlier. The jump is even more pronounced among independent voters, where it now stands at 44%, up from just 28% seven days earlier. According to another poll released by Fox News two days earlier, Harris and Trump are now neck and neck in four key states. The two candidates are tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while the Democrat wins by 6 points in Minnesota (52% to 46%) and the Republican leads Wisconsin by just one point (50% to 49%).
Faced with this rise in power of the Democratic candidacy, several Republican officials have already tried to warn against openly racist or sexist attacks targeting the vice president of Indian-Jamaican origin. “This election is going to be about policies, not personalities,” declared the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, on July 23. “There is nothing personal about Kamala Harris and her race or gender has nothing to do with it.”
Donald Trump “panics”
In a sign of the general nervousness, Donald Trump attacked the conservative network Fox News on July 29, accusing it of covering his opponent’s rallies. “Why is Fox News broadcasting crazy Kamala Harris rallies? Why is it allowing the perverts at the Lincoln Project (Editor’s note: a political action committee founded by anti-Trump Republicans), which failed and disgraced itself, to advertise on Fox News?” the Republican candidate protested, before adding: “We’re going to have to WIN WITHOUT FOX!” The same day, Donald Trump questioned whether he would participate in the second debate scheduled for September 10.
In fact, the candidacy of the current vice president is upending all the battle plans drawn up by the Republican teams in recent months. “Today, the attacks on Biden’s age are inexorably turning against Trump,” emphasizes Romain Huret. Faced with a candidate nearly 20 years his junior, the billionaire now finds himself in turn in the unflattering role of the oldest candidate to launch a bid for the White House. “My uncle is panicking,” said Mary Trump, the billionaire’s niece, who is very critical of him, on her Substack blog The Good in Us on July 24. “He’s running against a strong black woman – and a former prosecutor – who is not afraid to call him out or make fun of him. His entire campaign strategy was based on attacking Joe Biden – his age, his disability, his cognitive decline.”
With less than 100 days to go before the vote, it remains to be seen whether the “honeymoon” surrounding Harris’ campaign will be able to last until the election. “The Democrats should dominate the political debate at least until their convention at the end of August,” says Françoise Coste. “But things could get tougher in the fall when they have to get their hands dirty as the election approaches.” The American campaign will undoubtedly still have its share of twists and turns.
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