Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz demands swift action for the peace negotiations in Ukraine.
Scholz commented on the issue yesterday, Sunday, during the annual summer interview of the German public broadcaster ZDF.
– I believe that now is the time to discuss how we can get out of the war situation and how we can achieve peace faster, Scholz said.
Scholz’s statement attracts attention because throughout the war, Western leaders have insisted that Ukraine decides when it wants to start massaging peace. Western leaders have previously been careful not to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table.
Docent of Military Sciences Ilmari Käihkön according to Scholz’s demand for peace negotiations shows the uncertainty of international politics.
– This indicates that playing time is short, Käihkö says.
– Now we are talking about months, after which big changes can happen. In particular, the upcoming elections in the United States can change the situation decisively.
Scholz met the President of Ukraine last week to Volodymyr Zelensky. He said on Sunday that he agrees with Zelenskyi that Russia must be included in future peace negotiations.
According to Käihkö, Ukraine also wants Russia at the negotiating table before the US presidential election.
– After the elections, the situation for Ukraine may change.
Scholz has internal political pressures
Scholz’s comment can also be interpreted as part of Germany’s domestic politics, says a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Minna Ålander.
– Scholz’s own position and the board have come under a lot of pressure, says Ålander.
Parties opposed to supporting Ukraine recently won record victories in state elections in Thuringia and Saxony. In addition, Germany is halving its support for Ukraine next year.
However, according to Käihkö, circular talks about peace play into Russia’s pocket.
– Russia has military superiority. If the West now starts reducing its armed support, Ukraine’s chances of defending themselves will drastically decrease, says Käihkö.
Russia knows this too.
– Russia smells the insecurity of the West. It keeps the pressure up and pushes with force at least until the US elections, says Käihkö.
According to Käihkö, Russia does not seem to be slowed down if it has to continue making large material and human sacrifices for a few months. In this way, Russia improves its positions for possible negotiations.
– Russia would benefit from what Trump is threatening: to stop the game on the current front lines.
– This is also part of the reason why Russia is now pushing and taking as many territories as it can, Käihkö says.
Russia is advancing on Ukraine’s eastern front
Russia has advanced on Ukraine’s eastern front, and there has even been talk of a possible breach of Ukraine’s defenses. At least the situation is extremely difficult.
If Ukraine’s defense fails on the eastern front, Russia may have an opportunity to advance on a large scale. During the week, Russia claims to have captured several small villages and the mining town of Novohrodivka in Donetsk, about 20 kilometers from the strategically important city of Pokrovsk.
According to Käihkö, it is clear that the war, which has been going on for three years, wants to be resolved. The big question is what happens after that.
– Zelenskyi has now spoken about the four-point peace plan, which he will present to the United States later this month.
What does Zelenskyi want?
Zelenskyi has said that the peace plan to overcome the war in Ukraine has four stages. It also involves the Ukrainian attack on Kursk. Zelenskyi does not disclose details.
According to Zelensky, one part of the plan is a “powerful package” to force Russia to end the war through diplomatic means.
– This can be interpreted that there is something new in the presentation and that some kind of negotiation solution would perhaps be an option, says Käihkö.
– Ukraine needs to know how to guarantee its security in the future. It is difficult for it to agree, for example, to limiting its army, as Russia demanded in the spring of 2022.
According to Käihkö, an interim state like the Minsk agreement would not solve the situation either. The Russian military industry is able to replace its military losses faster. After that, Russia would be able to attack even more powerfully.
– It can be thought that war is even a safer option for the Ukrainians. If Ukraine were to demobilize its army now, it might not be able to get it up and running again quickly, Käihkö asks.
– Now Ukraine has the means of warfare – in a couple of years this may no longer be the case.