In November 2015, just a few weeks after the inauguration of his liberal government, Justin Trudeau made a notable appearance at COP21 in Paris. Determined to make history by building an agreement that would make “our children and our grandchildren” proud, the Canadian Prime Minister saw the future as green.
Nearly ten years later, its “climate record” is rather mixed. On the one hand, what he did is historic. “Justin Trudeau succeeded where his predecessors failed in terms of the environment. For example, he was the first to put in place a federal price on carbon, which, in itself, is an important accomplishment,” assures Johanne Whitmore, principal researcher at the chair of energy sector management at HEC Montréal.
In terms of figures, however, the results of the resigning Prime Minister remain unflattering. In CO2 emissions per capita, Canada exceeds China and the United States. Between 2005 and 2023, the country only reduced these by 8.5%, meaning that the government has only a few years left to achieve its ambitious target, a drop of almost 50%. here in 2030.
Among the most notable hiccups in Canada’s environmental roadmap, history will remember the collapse of the Arbre plan, which was to reconstitute a carbon sink using billions of plantations, or the government’s investment in the oil pipeline. Trans Mountain. An infrastructure useful for the economy but which offended the sensibilities of green voters, without rallying the supporters of hydrocarbons.
A carbon tax contested but applied
“Justin Trudeau had to make compromises, recognizes Pierre-Olivier Pineau, professor holding the chair of energy sector management at HEC Montréal. And for good reason: it is very difficult to implement measures throughout the territory because the ten provinces are very different, in particular Alberta which produces 4.3 million barrels of oil per day.” This would be the sixth largest producer in the world, ahead of Brazil, if it were a country.
Alberta also has a very conservative orientation, refusing taxes, promoting road transport as well as large family homes, which means that energy consumption per capita in this province is extremely high, just like in Saskatchewan. These two provinces consume nearly 500 gigajoules per person, compared to an average of 220 for Canada and less than 200 in Ontario and Quebec. “This appetite makes them particularly vulnerable to carbon taxes, because their energy comes primarily from oil and natural gas. The resistance from the industrial lobby, as well as from voters, is therefore extreme. In this context, it is remarkable that Justin Trudeau succeeded in putting a carbon tax in place, as well as several measures to try to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” assures Pierre-Olivier Pineau.
“His defeat is more linked to his decision-making approach which, more and more, sidelined his advisors, as well as to a series of conflicts of interest and blunders which harmed his popularity. This long decline is somewhat reminiscent of the course of his father, Pierre Elliott Trudeau”, analyzes Johanne Whitmore. It now remains to be seen what of its environmental legacy will persist.
The departure of Justin Trudeau, but above all the probable election of a conservative government – in a context where even the New Democratic Party is opposed to the carbon tax – should lead to at least a freezing of efforts. The most likely scenario is that of a regression in environmental policies: abolition of the carbon tax, the scale applied to industry based on the intensity of emissions, the CO2 ceiling for the oil sector, etc.
Philosopher, the economist adds: “Many provinces and Canadians, despite their differences, said they were in favor of these policies at the time they were voted on. It is therefore not impossible that a minimum base remains in place, to the extent that the conservatives have no coherent plan beyond their slogans.” Reason could prevail, even if the current political context casts doubt on it.
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