The relations between Turkey and Greece have gone from talk of war to messages of peace and cooperation in a good year. But it’s unclear whether the countries can resolve their many disputes, despite the nice words.
At the beginning of December, the president of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Prime Minister of Greece Kyriakos Mitsotakis met in Athens.
Relations between Turkey and Greece have sometimes been harnessed as an election campaign tool, but when the leaders met, both had secured their mandates in the elections, which facilitated discussions.
Greece’s quick aid to Turkey after the devastating earthquake in February 2023 already had a positive effect on the mood.
The crisis in Ukraine and the war in Gaza may have also increased the desire to calm the situation between the two countries.
President Erdoğan spoke in Athens about the Aegean Sea as a sea of peace. The leaders promised to increase trade and promised to seek solutions to the countries’ disputes through negotiations.
Turkey and Greece have also agreed on confidence-building measures, such as joint military exercises.
Airspace violations ended
Recently, it has been calmer, also quite concretely, says the professor Konstantinos Filis from the American College of Greece.
– Since April of last year, there have been hardly any airspace violations and Turkish planes have not flown over the Greek islands, Filis says in a telephone interview.
He heads the Institute of International Affairs, which operates in connection with the American College. He is also involved with the Turks and Greeks in a group promoting dialogue.
“Impossible to negotiate the status of the islands”
At this point, it has been decided to leave the big problems with Filis aside, but there are enough of them. For example, some of the airspace violations are explained by the fact that Turkey and Greece disagree on the borders of Greek airspace.
The countries also disagree on, among other things, the boundary lines of the continental shelf and economic zones. The dispute is closely related to who gets to decide on oil and gas exploration in sea areas.
According to Turkey, some of the small Greek islands in the Aegean Sea are located in the so-called gray zone, i.e their status is unclear.
Eastern Aegean islands should follow Turkey to demilitarize, because in its opinion Greece has brought them weapons in violation of international agreements. Greece denies the treaty violations.
– There is no Greek government that can negotiate the demilitarization of the islands and their status. We should negotiate whether the Greek island can become part of Turkey, and that is not possible, Professor Konstantinos Filis thinks.
Erdoğan threatened a surprise attack
Just under a year and a half ago, Erdoğan warned that Turkey might attack unexpectedly one night.
Erdoğan has also reminded that Turkey has missiles with which it could attack the Greek capital, Athens.
Although the war talk has now stopped almost completely, last weekend Erdoğan recalled again how “the Greeks were pushed into the sea” from Izmir on the west coast of Turkey. Turkish troops captured the city from the Greeks in a war a hundred years ago.
Erdoğan will participate in the campaigning for the local elections at the end of March. Jyrkä’s nationalist speeches are related to elections.
– Let’s assume that this was an isolated case, and there will be no more talk like this, Konstantinos Filis reflects.
Sweden’s NATO membership affects the arms trade
As a surprising by-product of Sweden’s NATO membership, armaments in the Eastern Mediterranean are gaining additional momentum.
After accepting Sweden’s NATO membership, Turkey is getting permission to buy 40 F-16 fighter jets from the United States, and in addition, around 80 military aircraft will be modernized.
As part of Joe Biden In the package put together by the administration, Greece can buy a maximum of 40 newer F-35 fighter jets from the United States.
– A new round of equipment is underway here. In an ideal world, this money would be used for education and healthcare, says Konstantinos Filis.
He describes the Greek mindset where history is thought to show that military power is what Turkey respects.
A war between two NATO countries sounds impossible in itself.
– It is not believed here that a military confrontation would arise between Turkey and Greece, but in order to keep Turkey at bay we have to arm ourselves.
Greek According to Kathimerini magazine According to Turkey’s decision on F-16 sales, there is an entry that fighter jet deliveries can be suspended. The condition could be triggered if the planes are used to disrupt Greece, such as by flying over Greek islands in the Aegean Sea.
Turkey Ministry of Defence has denied the information about the special conditions.
Trump’s election victory could increase uncertainty
One question mark is what happens if Donald Trump will be re-elected president of the United States in the November elections.
During his first presidential term, Trump seemed almost infatuated with President Erdoğan at times, who is said to have easily put his calls through to Trump. Erdoğan also managed to squeeze concessions from Trump.
Significant for Turkey the victory came in autumn 2019 when Trump balked at virtually agreeing to an attack by Turkish ground forces against the Kurdish-led regime in northeastern Syria.
– Trump seems to have had a special relationship with Erdoğan and other autocratic leaders, says Filis.
Professor Filis reminds us that Trump’s policy was not consistent.
The strategic dialogue between Greece and the United States began during Trump’s reign. Trump also threatened Turkey with sanctions at one point. The background was a dispute over an American pastor imprisoned in Turkey, who was later released.
Big controversial issues are difficult to solve alone
Konstantinos Filis believes that Turkey and Greece can increase their cooperation in, for example, tourism, the energy sector and work against climate change.
– However, major controversial issues cannot be resolved in bilateral negotiations. These disputes should be taken to the International Court of Justice in The Hague or we need a miracle, and I don’t believe in miracles in international politics, says Professor Konstantinos Filis.