The rebel coalition continues its incursions and continues to gain ground against the Burmese army in several regions of the country. The regime, placed on the defensive, has just made a major concession: the general in chief of the junta Min Aung Hlaing is calling for a political settlement of the conflict for the first time.
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No more choice, because the Burmese army is facing a surge that it is unable to stop. More than 200 military posts lost, hundreds of soldiers killed, huge quantities of equipment seized by the rebels, including artillery guns…
The morale of the Burmese troops is at its lowest. And if the regime’s troops, around 300,000 men, scattered on different fronts, still resist, it is only thanks to the air superiority of the junta which indiscriminately bombs the conflict zones, causing serious civilian losses.
The picture is worrying for Min Aung Hlaing, the Burmese general in chief, who seems to be letting go, it is true, but there is no clear call for the opening of negotiations and the highest Burmese officer is better known for the massacres committed against the Rohingya than for his talents as a peacemaker.
The Burmese military is experienced, having fought for decades against different ethnic groups, and to date the military institution has not been destabilized by major defections within the officer corps that would cause an implosion of the command apparatus. Last important element: China. Even if Beijing rails against the junta, which it considers ineffective and corrupt, Beijing is still far from letting go of Min Aung Hlaing, whom it has supported at arm’s length since the 2021 coup d’état.
Read alsoThe ruling junta in Burma faces several guerrilla fronts: fighting on the Thai border