The return of stability could involve the restructuring of the National Assembly, and therefore, the announcement of a new dissolution by Emmanuel Macron. New balance of power could then emerge.
A political impasse. On June 9, 2024, during the second round of the European elections, the National Rally came first with 31.4% of the votes. The same evening, at around 9 p.m., Emmanuel Macron spoke on the steps of the Elysée and announced the dissolution of the National Assembly. A shock wave then crossed the country and early legislative elections were organized in France. At the end of the second round, on July 7, the result was clear: the presidential majority was defeated. The left then became the leading political bloc in terms of number of elected officials (182 seats), ahead of the Macronist group (168 seats), above the far-right bloc and allies (143 seats).
Given the political forces present in the lower house of Parliament and the current composition of this National Assembly, the country is now in a situation of institutional blockage. Prime Minister Michel Barnier drew out article 49.3 to forcefully pass the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS), which led to the tabling of two motions of censure, one from the NFP and the other from RN. The tenant of Matignon should, barring any major surprises, be censored and fall this Wednesday, December 4, at around 7 p.m.
Under these conditions, an uncensorable Prime Minister can no longer exist, he can be called into question at any time. The only viable solution for the country to find a stable government could be a restructuring of the Assembly with new balance of power and if possible, an absolute majority. To do this, new legislative elections must be called. The multiple dissolution of the National Assembly – by the same president – would not be a first. General de Gaulle did it in 1962 then 1968. François Mitterrand imitated him in 1981 and 1988.
New legislative elections from July 13, 2025?
According to theArticle 12 of the Constitution, Emmanuel Macron can absolutely pronounce a new dissolution of the National Assembly, on one condition, the timetable. “The President of the Republic may, after consultation with the Prime Minister and the Presidents of the Assemblies, pronounce the dissolution of the National Assembly. The general elections take place at least twenty days and forty days at most after the dissolution (…) He cannot can be carried out with a new dissolution in the year following these elections”, we can read.
The last legislative elections having been held on June 30 (first round) and July 7 (second round), there cannot be new dissolutions before the summer of 2025. More precisely, July 13, 2025. Legislative elections will not take place before the summer of 2025. cannot be held more than once a year, which therefore brings us to July 8, but an election of this type being scheduled for a Sunday, it could be Sunday July 13 for the first round : first deadline available for Emmanuel Macron. The Head of State could also decide to wait a few more weeks and initiate a new legislative election during the 2025 political year, next September.
“I call them from mywishes”, insists Marine Le Pen
Precisely, new elections which have already been called for by certain political leaders. On herwishes”, she declared. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, for his part, wishes the dismissal of Emmanuel Macron or the resignation of the president, before the holding of an early presidential election. He notably proposed a “federal offer” to “those who want” to join LFI to “put forward a common candidacy on a disruptive program”, in a conference entitled “The political moment” broadcast on YouTube.
Last September, RN president Jordan Bardella encouraged his parliamentarians to become “indispensable”. They must “take a new step and become an influential opposition,” he said. Waiting for a potential new dissolution? And why not.
Emmanuel Macron has been thinking about it since last July
This “prolonged instability (…)could cause major tremors. A new institutional impasse, following this summer’s political crisis, would bring us closer to a real regime crisis,” concedes political scientist Dorian Dreuil, in an interview with La Dépêche du Midion November 24. According to him, a new dissolution in 2025 is “entirely possible. Emmanuel Macron could dissolve the Assembly again in the hope of finding a majority, even if that seems more than complicated,” he concedes.
According to Le FigaroEmmanuel Macron is reportedly considering dissolving the National Assembly once again since July 2024. A “firing window” would emerge “between June and December 2025”, we can read, according to information from a close friend of the president . As the 2027 presidential election approaches, this temporality could allow the head of state to maintain a certain tempo, preceding the municipal and senatorial elections of 2026.