The Wagner group has entered Russia to “stop” the Russian military leadership.
Leader Yevgeny Prigozhin calls it a “march for justice” – opponent Vladimir Putin calls it an armed uprising.
– The situation is extremely serious, says former lieutenant colonel Jörgen Elfving to TV4 Nyheterna.
Late on Friday evening, the Kremlin and the Russian military leadership were shaken by the announcement by the paramilitary Wagner group that they aimed to stop the Russian military leadership.
Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin claims Russia attacked the group – and has vowed revenge. According to him, Wagner forces have already entered Russia. President Vladimir Putin calls the incident treason and says it is “a stab in the back”.
“Some kind of coup d’état”
In Sweden, the events in Russia have caused several experts and politicians to raise their eyebrows. Former lieutenant colonel Jörgen Elfving tells TV4 Nyheterna that the situation is serious.
– The situation is extremely serious. What we have is an armed rebellion against the legitimate state power, he says.
Elving believes that one of Prigozhin’s aims is to bring about a change of power in Russia.
– The question is how this is noticed in the presidential administration. If they sympathize with Prigozhin, one can imagine that it will lead to some kind of coup d’état, he says, but emphasizes that such a scenario is less likely.
Mobilized soldiers can return home
The former lieutenant colonel also envisions a scenario where Russian mobilized soldiers lose motivation in the war against Ukraine. Prigozhin claims on Saturday that Russian units refused to fire on the forces of the Wagner group, a statement that is unconfirmed.
– Most of the Russian armed forces are probably loyal, but we do not know how the mobilized personnel will act, says Jörgen Elfving.
– The lack of motivation to go to war against Ukraine can mean that people now seize the opportunity and hang the uniform in the wardrobe and go home.
The Russian security service FSB has opened a criminal investigation against Prigozhin, and from the Russian side there have been calls to arrest the Wagner boss.
– It may be that people in his environment realize that this is a less successful operation and to save their own skin they arrest and hand over Prigozhin, says Jörgen Elfving.
Prigozhin’s death “cannot be ruled out”
Joakim Paasikivi, lieutenant colonel at the Norwegian Defense Academy, said earlier in the day that the armed rebellion will likely be put down fairly quickly.
– Prigozhin will have a rather short and eventful life, he says to TV4 Nyheterna.
Jörgen Elfving does not rule out that the Wagner manager faces a tough future.
– It cannot be ruled out that he behaves within the framework of the rebellion in such a way that he falls on the battlefield, he says.