The White House announced on Tuesday that Ukraine and Russia agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj has described the agreement as a step in the right direction, but according to the military expert and former Lieutenant Colonel Jörgen Elfving, some remain to be sorted out.
– Spontaneously, this is a positive step in that you have reached an agreement. But you have to clear up the details, and we have not yet done that, he says.
At the same time, he sees that both Ukrainian and Russian side have a lot to gain from such an agreement. On the part of Ukraine, it would facilitate their grain exports.
“And the Russian marine forces in the Black Sea well draw a sigh of relief, they have been the subject of Ukrainian attacks since the beginning of the war,” he says.
“May be games for the gallery”
At the same time, the Kremlin expresses counterclaims for accepting the agreement from the Russian side. The requirements include lifting sanctions on the Russian agricultural bank and “other financial institutions” involved in Russian food exports, which the United States seems to have agreed to according to the White House’s statement.
– This is another example where, from the United States, Russia and Russian requirements are met. From Ukrainian side, this means further doubt about where the United States stands, says Jörgen Elfving.
According to him, the Russian requirements also indicate that from the Kremlin there is no genuine interest in reaching a peace agreement in the near future.
– Much indicates that there is no genuine Russian interest in peace in the near future, but you want to complete the war until you have achieved the war goals you have had from the beginning. It may be a game for the gallery that you agree to certain agreements, he says
“Do not rule out that Russia breaks the ceasefire”
Ukraine Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has warned Russia to move its combat vessels outside the eastern part of the Black Sea, and believes that such activity would violate the agreement.
Elfving believes that you have to wait for more details about the ceasefire before it is possible to talk about what it takes for it to be broken.
– But Russia has quite frequently attacked the port of Odessa to disturb the Ukrainian grain exports, and I do not rule out that Russia will break such a ceasefire for sweeping reasons, he says.