Jonas Björck on the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon

A ceasefire may now finally be in place in the war-torn border area between Israel and Lebanon.
But the situation is extremely unstable and a possible peace settlement between the parties is far away, writes TV4’s foreign reporter Jonas Björck.

What is the truce about?

Primarily, that the warring parties, the Israeli army and Shia Muslim Hezbollah, release combat contact with each other.

The Israelis withdraw from southern Lebanon and regroup into their own territory.

Hezbollah is to move its heavier weapons such as rockets, mortars, artillery and robots to the north of the Litani River in southern Lebanon, or about three miles from the border with Israel.
An international commission must monitor that this happens. It is still unclear who will be included, but the monitoring group will be led by the United States. Note that this ceasefire only applies between Israel and Hezbollah. In Gaza, the situation will not change.

Why has Israel carried out such intense attacks on Lebanon on the day it intends to conclude a ceasefire?

Not entirely unusual in this type of conflict. The Israeli military leadership is taking the opportunity to bomb until the very end to knock out as many as possible of the military installations and command centers that Hezbollah has left.

How likely is it that the ceasefire will lead to lasting peace?

Incredibly difficult to answer considering how unstable the situation is right now in the region. Hopefully there will at least be a truce for a number of weeks, but a lasting peace unfortunately looks very far away.

What will be the next step?

Hopefully the parties withdraw as promised.
Above all, this means that the hundreds of thousands of Lebanese who have been forced to flee from the southern parts of the country can eventually return to their hometowns.

In many cases, they will come back to towns and villages that were completely or partially destroyed in the fighting. On the Israeli side, it is about a hundred thousand who were forced away by the fighting and who now hope to return to their homes in northern Israel.

t4-general